35
Table 2.3: Marginal posterior cell probabilities (central 95% credible intervals) of
toxicity. The table only reports grades up to к — 3. The marginal probabilities for
grade G4 abnormal vision are 0 (with 95% C.I. (0,0.002)) under placebo, and 0.001
(with 95% C.I., (0,0.002)) under isotretinoin.
Toxic effect No Tox Gl G2 G3
Placebo
Abn. vision 0.974 (0.962, 0.985) 0.02 (0.011, 0.033) 0.002 (0.001, 0.005) 0.003 (0.001, 0.006)
Arthralgia 0.937 (0.918, 0.954) 0.042 (0.029, 0.057) 0.019 (0.013, 0.026) 0.002 (0.001, 0.005)
Cheilitis 0.808 (0.774, 0.84) 0.172 (0.145, 0.201) 0.02 (0.012, 0.03) 0 (0, 0)
Conjunctivitis 0.896 (0.872, 0.918) 0.077 (0.063, 0.093) 0.025 (0.015, 0.036) 0.001 (0, 0.002)
Fatigue 0.967 (0.952, 0.978) 0.024 (0.015, 0.035) 0.009 (0.005, 0.015) 0.001 (0, 0.001)
Headache 0.962 (0.945, 0.976) 0.029 (0.017, 0.044) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.001 (0, 0.003)
H.-triglyceride 0.971 (0.955, 0.983) 0.028 (0.017, 0.042) 0.001 (0, 0.003) 0 (0, 0)
Isotretinoin
Abn. vision 0.972 (0.958, 0.983) 0.023 (0.013, 0.035) 0.002 (0, 0.004) 0.003 (0.001, 0.006)
Arthralgia 0.922 (0.9, 0.941) 0.054 (0.039, 0.073) 0.021 (0.014, 0.028) 0.003 (0.002, 0.006)
Cheilitis 0.398 (0.355,0.443) 0.403 (0.365,0.439) 0.177 (0.153,0.203) 0.022 (0.015,0.031)
Conjunctivitis 0.777 (0.739, 0.814) 0.163 (0.133, 0.196) 0.052 (0.04, 0.066) 0.007 (0.004, 0.011)
Fatigue 0.959 (0.943, 0.973) 0.029 (0.019, 0.042 ) 0.011 (0.006, 0.017) 0.001 (0, 0.002)
Headache 0.968 (0.953, 0.98) 0.024 (0.015, 0.036) 0.007 (0.004, 0.012) 0.001 (0, 0.002)
H.-triglyceride 0.851 (0.82, 0.879) 0.086 (0.064, 0.11) 0.056 (0.038, 0.075) 0.007 (0.002, 0.013)