The name is absent

35

Table 2.3: Marginal posterior cell probabilities (central 95% credible intervals) of
toxicity. The table only reports grades up to к — 3. The marginal probabilities for
grade G4 abnormal vision are 0 (with 95% C.I. (0,0.002)) under placebo, and 0.001
(with 95% C.I., (0,0.002)) under isotretinoin.

Toxic effect  No Tox            Gl                G2                G3

Placebo

Abn. vision  0.974 (0.962, 0.985)  0.02 (0.011, 0.033)   0.002 (0.001, 0.005)  0.003 (0.001, 0.006)

Arthralgia  0.937 (0.918, 0.954)  0.042 (0.029, 0.057)  0.019 (0.013, 0.026)  0.002 (0.001, 0.005)

Cheilitis  0.808 (0.774, 0.84)   0.172 (0.145, 0.201)  0.02 (0.012, 0.03)     0 (0, 0)

Conjunctivitis  0.896 (0.872, 0.918)  0.077 (0.063, 0.093)  0.025 (0.015, 0.036)  0.001 (0, 0.002)

Fatigue  0.967 (0.952, 0.978)  0.024 (0.015, 0.035)  0.009 (0.005, 0.015)  0.001 (0, 0.001)

Headache  0.962 (0.945, 0.976)  0.029 (0.017, 0.044)  0.008 (0.004, 0.013)  0.001 (0, 0.003)

H.-triglyceride  0.971 (0.955, 0.983)  0.028 (0.017, 0.042)  0.001 (0, 0.003)      0 (0, 0)

Isotretinoin

Abn. vision  0.972 (0.958, 0.983)  0.023 (0.013, 0.035)  0.002 (0, 0.004)      0.003 (0.001, 0.006)

Arthralgia  0.922 (0.9, 0.941)    0.054 (0.039, 0.073)  0.021 (0.014, 0.028)  0.003 (0.002, 0.006)

Cheilitis 0.398 (0.355,0.443) 0.403 (0.365,0.439) 0.177 (0.153,0.203) 0.022 (0.015,0.031)

Conjunctivitis  0.777 (0.739, 0.814)  0.163 (0.133, 0.196)  0.052 (0.04, 0.066)   0.007 (0.004, 0.011)

Fatigue  0.959 (0.943, 0.973)  0.029 (0.019, 0.042 )  0.011 (0.006, 0.017)  0.001 (0, 0.002)

Headache  0.968 (0.953, 0.98)   0.024 (0.015, 0.036)  0.007 (0.004, 0.012)  0.001 (0, 0.002)

H.-triglyceride  0.851 (0.82, 0.879)   0.086 (0.064, 0.11)   0.056 (0.038, 0.075)  0.007 (0.002, 0.013)

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