Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?



63


Figure 5: Counterfactual Hartwick rule


400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150


Low
resource
dependence


Ghana
Zirnl


High
resource
dependence


. South Africa
ιιca

•   ∙ Peru


itɪiabwe Mexico


India


_ ^Thailand
Korea, Rep. of


Zambia


Guyana

Bolivia
г Ecuador


» ~ t Chile
Egypt Arab Rep. of
Indonesia


Malaysia *china


Λ

Nigeria


Venezuela, R. B. de


Trinidad and Tobago


Mauritania

Gabon

Algeria» ∙ Congo, Rep. of


Low
capital
accum.


High
capital
accum.


0         5         10        15        20        25        30        35

% share of resource rents in GDP (average 1970-2000)

Source: World Bank (2006, Figure 4.1).

Figure 6: Alternative prescriptions for harnessing natural resource windfalls

Δ C

To

Ti

t


Key: The incremental consumption path indicated by ‘Developing’ is the optimal path
obtained by maximizing social welfare for a developing economy which suffers capital
scarcity and has to pay an interest premium on its outstanding foreign debt.



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