|
Table 10 Aggregate and sectoral business cycle synchronisation | ||||||||
|
(in percentages) |
1990s | |||||||
|
Aggregate |
Agriculture |
Industry |
Construction |
Trade |
Finance |
Business |
Public | |
|
Belgium |
0.81 |
0.20 |
0.72 |
0.49 |
0.59 |
-0.42 |
0.35 |
-0.16 |
|
Germany |
0.83 |
0.50 |
0.81 |
0.23 |
0.38 |
-0.19 |
0.27 |
-0.09 |
|
Greece |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Spain |
0.86 |
-0.15 |
0.73 |
0.35 |
0.82 |
-0.27 |
0.09 |
0.03 |
|
France |
0.77 |
0.57 |
0.79 |
0.45 |
0.46 |
0.18 |
0.24 |
-0.06 |
|
Ireland |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Italy |
0.83 |
0.50 |
0.86 |
0.08 |
0.68 |
0.56 |
0.12 |
0.34 |
|
Luxembourg |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Netherlands |
0.82 |
0.42 |
0.76 |
0.36 |
0.65 |
0.02 |
0.36 |
-0.15 |
|
Austria |
0.85 |
0.22 |
0.90 |
0.51 |
0.34 |
0.37 |
0.24 |
0.45 |
|
Portugal |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Finland |
0.54 |
-0.36 |
0.68 |
-0.04 |
0.63 |
0.37 |
-0.15 |
0.23 |
|
Denmark |
0.78 |
-0.22 |
0.62 |
0.66 |
0.03 |
0.22 |
0.16 |
-0.15 |
|
Sweden |
0.71 |
-0.03 |
0.76 |
0.38 |
0.61 |
0.21 |
0.25 |
0.17 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.68 |
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
0.16 |
0.60 |
0.33 |
0.12 |
|
1980s | ||||||||
|
Belgium |
0.78 |
0.16 |
0.86 |
0.18 |
0.36 |
-0.09 |
0.48 |
-0.02 |
|
Germany |
0.00 |
0.16 |
0.37 |
0.36 |
-0.21 |
-0.56 |
-0.52 |
-0.27 |
|
Greece |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Spain |
0.18 |
-0.19 |
-0.14 |
0.16 |
0.35 |
-0.12 |
-0.38 |
0.23 |
|
France |
0.22 |
0.23 |
0.62 |
0.34 |
0.34 |
0.18 |
0.24 |
0.24 |
|
Ireland |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Italy |
0.66 |
0.42 |
0.51 |
0.22 |
0.62 |
0.48 |
-0.14 |
0.51 |
|
Luxembourg |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Netherlands |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Austria |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Portugal |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Finland |
0.16 |
0.02 |
0.46 |
0.40 |
0.48 |
0.61 |
0.19 |
-0.24 |
|
Denmark |
0.19 |
0.37 |
0.34 |
-0.09 |
0.18 |
0.66 |
0.42 |
0.35 |
|
Sweden |
0.51 |
0.05 |
0.57 |
0.08 |
0.50 |
0.32 |
-0.16 |
-0.11 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.31 |
0.22 |
0.43 |
0.45 |
0.77 |
0.36 |
0.24 |
0.33 |
|
Sources: Eurostat, NCBs, ECB calculations. | ||||||||
|
Note: The table shows |
averages of correlation coefficients of the aggregate and the sectoral business cycle components across |
countries | ||||||
|
using an 11-quarter rolling window; averages were calculated with respect to the periods 1981 ∙ |
■1990 and 1991 |
-2001. | ||||||
Compared with the aggregate synchronisation,
convergence at the sectoral level appears to be
much less important. While industry
synchronisation follows a similar pattern to that
for the aggregate level, mainly on account of its
higher degree of openness and international
links, trade has been synchronised with the
remaining EU countries only in some countries,
such as Belgium, Finland (only during the
1990s), Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and
Sweden. Construction and finance seem to have
followed a more heterogeneous synchronisation
pattern, with some periods where construction
was following similar paths in EU countries and
others where it diverged across EU countries.
3.3.2 BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONISATION:
SECTORAL ORIGINS
Given the large differences in synchronisation
across different sectors, it can be estimated to
what extent the different sectors have
contributed to aggregate business cycle
synchronisation. Table 11 gives an overview of
ECB
Occasional Paper No. 19
July 2004