Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia



Table 1 Projected mean inflows (per cent of baseline value)

Catchment

Adaptation only

Mitigation

2050

2100

2050

2100

Condamine

72.6

31.8

79.4

78.0

Border Rivers, Qld

72.9

32.4

79.6

78.2

Warrego-Paroo

72.0

30.2

78.9

77.5

Namoi

77.8

44.7

83.3

82.2

Central West

78.3

46.0

83.7

82.6

Maranoa-Balonne

72.0

30.2

78.9

77.5

Border Rivers-Gwydir

78.1

45.6

83.5

82.5

Western

76.0

40.1

81.9

80.7

Lachlan______________

77.8

44.6

83.3

82.1

Murrumbidgee

78.1

45.4

83.5

82.4

North East

79.8

49.8

84.8

83.8

Murray 1

75.6

39.2

81.6

80.4

Goulburn-Broken

72.9

32.6

79.6

78.3

Murray 2

75.6

39.2

81.6

80.4

North Central

71.6

29.4

78.7

77.2

Murray 3

75.6

39.2

81.6

80.4

Mallee

70.8

27.3

78.0

76.6

Lower Murray Darling

74.4

36.2

80.7

79.4

SA MDB

65.0

12.9

73.7

71.9

Snowy River__________

81.7

56.8

85.9

85.2

Total___________________

76.6

41.7

82.6

81.1

Inflows are expected to decline in all catchments as a result of climate change.
The smallest reductions are those for the Snowy River. The decline is greatest
for catchments in parts of the Basin that are already relatively dry, most notably
the South Australian section of the Basin.

The ‘adaptation only’ scenario implies a substantial reduction in inflows over the
period to 2100. In drought states, the projections imply that flows will cease
altogether in the downstream sections of the Murray and in most of the Darling.

3 Modelling

The model results presented here are derived from an updated version of the
state-contingent Murray-Darling Basin Model documented in Adamson,

14



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