Table 1 Projected mean inflows (per cent of baseline value)
|
Catchment |
Adaptation only |
Mitigation | ||
|
2050 |
2100 |
2050 |
2100 | |
|
Condamine |
72.6 |
31.8 |
79.4 |
78.0 |
|
Border Rivers, Qld |
72.9 |
32.4 |
79.6 |
78.2 |
|
Warrego-Paroo |
72.0 |
30.2 |
78.9 |
77.5 |
|
Namoi |
77.8 |
44.7 |
83.3 |
82.2 |
|
Central West |
78.3 |
46.0 |
83.7 |
82.6 |
|
Maranoa-Balonne |
72.0 |
30.2 |
78.9 |
77.5 |
|
Border Rivers-Gwydir |
78.1 |
45.6 |
83.5 |
82.5 |
|
Western |
76.0 |
40.1 |
81.9 |
80.7 |
|
Lachlan______________ |
77.8 |
44.6 |
83.3 |
82.1 |
|
Murrumbidgee |
78.1 |
45.4 |
83.5 |
82.4 |
|
North East |
79.8 |
49.8 |
84.8 |
83.8 |
|
Murray 1 |
75.6 |
39.2 |
81.6 |
80.4 |
|
Goulburn-Broken |
72.9 |
32.6 |
79.6 |
78.3 |
|
Murray 2 |
75.6 |
39.2 |
81.6 |
80.4 |
|
North Central |
71.6 |
29.4 |
78.7 |
77.2 |
|
Murray 3 |
75.6 |
39.2 |
81.6 |
80.4 |
|
Mallee |
70.8 |
27.3 |
78.0 |
76.6 |
|
Lower Murray Darling |
74.4 |
36.2 |
80.7 |
79.4 |
|
SA MDB |
65.0 |
12.9 |
73.7 |
71.9 |
|
Snowy River__________ |
81.7 |
56.8 |
85.9 |
85.2 |
|
Total___________________ |
76.6 |
41.7 |
82.6 |
81.1 |
Inflows are expected to decline in all catchments as a result of climate change.
The smallest reductions are those for the Snowy River. The decline is greatest
for catchments in parts of the Basin that are already relatively dry, most notably
the South Australian section of the Basin.
The ‘adaptation only’ scenario implies a substantial reduction in inflows over the
period to 2100. In drought states, the projections imply that flows will cease
altogether in the downstream sections of the Murray and in most of the Darling.
3 Modelling
The model results presented here are derived from an updated version of the
state-contingent Murray-Darling Basin Model documented in Adamson,
14