Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia



Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the tools of duality theory are fully applicable in a
state-contingent setting. The modelling approach used here allows use of the
standard duality concepts associated with linear and nonlinear programming.

These advantages of the state-contingent approach are particularly relevant in
relation to the modelling of climate change. Climate change is expected to
produce an increase in mean temperatures and a reduction in mean precipitation
in the Murray-Darling Basin. However, as shown by Adamson, Mallawaarachchi
and Quiggin (2009) the effects of changes in mean values are modest in
comparison with those of changes in the stochastic distribution of inflows to the
system and, in particular, with increases in the frequency of drought.

Using a state-contingent production representation of uncertainty, climate
change may be represented as a change in the probability distribution of states
of nature, with hotter, drier states becoming more probable.

General specifications

The Basin is simulated at a Catchment Management Authority scale for 19
catchment regions, along with Adelaide and the Coorong. The Adelaide and
Coorong catchments allow for the representation of water quality arriving in
Adelaide and a proxy value for environmental flows represented by water
reaching the Coorong.

The model contains three states of nature, corresponding to Normal, Wet (20 per
cent above normal inflows) and Drought (40 per cent below normal inflows)
conditions. The probabilities of the the three states (Normal: 0.5, Wet: 0.3,
Drought: 0.2) and the associated inflow levels are calibrated to match the
observed historical mean and variance of inflow levels.

An activity in the model is specified by inputs and outputs in each state of
nature. A given activity may produce the same commodity in each state, or

16



More intriguing information

1. Social Irresponsibility in Management
2. Spatial patterns in intermunicipal Danish commuting
3. Sectoral specialisation in the EU a macroeconomic perspective
4. Program Semantics and Classical Logic
5. The name is absent
6. fMRI Investigation of Cortical and Subcortical Networks in the Learning of Abstract and Effector-Specific Representations of Motor Sequences
7. The growing importance of risk in financial regulation
8. The name is absent
9. The name is absent
10. AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: INTO FINAL BATTLE
11. The name is absent
12. The name is absent
13. The Formation of Wenzhou Footwear Clusters: How Were the Entry Barriers Overcome?
14. The open method of co-ordination: Some remarks regarding old-age security within an enlarged European Union
15. The name is absent
16. The name is absent
17. Improvement of Access to Data Sets from the Official Statistics
18. Testing Gribat´s Law Across Regions. Evidence from Spain.
19. The name is absent
20. The name is absent