The Response of Ethiopian Grain Markets to Liberalization

Table 8 SURE estimates of the effects of seasonality, grain market liberalization, rainfall and food aid on maize price levels

based on the assumption of weak market integration (1984:10 to 1993:12)

Independent variables	Markets
Independent variables	Addis Ababa	Bako	Shashemene	Dire Dawa	Jimma	Mekele
Constant	29.67^a	8.57^b	35.52^a	43.66^a	17.23^a	90.99^a
Mar	4.65	-0.86	3.81	8.28	10.03	-10.80
April	-0.97	-0.17	3.25	3.62	0.15	-35.61
May	8.31	6.09	12.63^b	7.36	1.36	-6.33
Jun	4.91	10.46^b	18.50^a	7.30	4.68	17.05
July	13.60^b	6.60	14.17^b	18.15^b	1.18	72.27^a
Aug	9.90	3.81	4.30	7.34	-1.53	53.97^b
Sept	17.30^c	5.35	5.29	6.96	1.88	57.71^b
Oct	10.63	-4.09	-5.37	0.20	-9.80	62.80^b
Nov	5.14	-7.19	3.13	2.07	-9.82	27.82
Dec	1.16	-2.79	3.64	-5.89	-6.63	-7.62
Jan	1.21	-1.81	1.05	1.87	0.97	-29.08
Dlib12	4.39	3.87^c	10.93^a	5.77	2.94	-27.52^b
RF	-0.06^b	-0.03	-0.10^a	-0.11^c	-0.00399	-0.62^b
FAID	0.00015	0.0009	0.000568	0.00028	-0.013	0.00018
Pt-1	0.69^a	0.87^a	0.51^a	0.63^a	0.79^a	0.62^a
Diagnostics
R2	0.71	0.89	0.77	0.70	0.77	0.56
JB	5.33^c	0.14	2.73	21.50^a	45.75^a	0.62
Q-S__________	9.61	17.08^b	12.75	12.88	10.73	2.57

Note: a, b, and c indicate statistical significance at a probability of less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

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