Table 8 SURE estimates of the effects of seasonality, grain market liberalization, rainfall and food aid on maize price levels
based on the assumption of weak market integration (1984:10 to 1993:12)
Independent |
Markets | |||||
Addis Ababa |
Bako |
Shashemene |
Dire Dawa |
Jimma |
Mekele | |
Constant |
29.67a |
8.57b |
35.52a |
43.66a |
17.23a |
90.99a |
Mar |
4.65 |
-0.86 |
3.81 |
8.28 |
10.03 |
-10.80 |
April |
-0.97 |
-0.17 |
3.25 |
3.62 |
0.15 |
-35.61 |
May |
8.31 |
6.09 |
12.63b |
7.36 |
1.36 |
-6.33 |
Jun |
4.91 |
10.46b |
18.50a |
7.30 |
4.68 |
17.05 |
July |
13.60b |
6.60 |
14.17b |
18.15b |
1.18 |
72.27a |
Aug |
9.90 |
3.81 |
4.30 |
7.34 |
-1.53 |
53.97b |
Sept |
17.30c |
5.35 |
5.29 |
6.96 |
1.88 |
57.71b |
Oct |
10.63 |
-4.09 |
-5.37 |
0.20 |
-9.80 |
62.80b |
Nov |
5.14 |
-7.19 |
3.13 |
2.07 |
-9.82 |
27.82 |
Dec |
1.16 |
-2.79 |
3.64 |
-5.89 |
-6.63 |
-7.62 |
Jan |
1.21 |
-1.81 |
1.05 |
1.87 |
0.97 |
-29.08 |
Dlib12 |
4.39 |
3.87c |
10.93a |
5.77 |
2.94 |
-27.52b |
RF |
-0.06b |
-0.03 |
-0.10a |
-0.11c |
-0.00399 |
-0.62b |
FAID |
0.00015 |
0.0009 |
0.000568 |
0.00028 |
-0.013 |
0.00018 |
Pt-1 |
0.69a |
0.87a |
0.51a |
0.63a |
0.79a |
0.62a |
Diagnostics | ||||||
R2 |
0.71 |
0.89 |
0.77 |
0.70 |
0.77 |
0.56 |
JB |
5.33c |
0.14 |
2.73 |
21.50a |
45.75a |
0.62 |
Q-S__________ |
9.61 |
17.08b |
12.75 |
12.88 |
10.73 |
2.57 |
Note: a, b, and c indicate statistical significance at a probability of less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.
-31-
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