The Response of Ethiopian Grain Markets to Liberalization



Table 8          SURE estimates of the effects of seasonality, grain market liberalization, rainfall and food aid on maize price levels

based on the assumption of weak market integration (1984:10 to 1993:12)

Independent
variables

Markets

Addis Ababa

Bako

Shashemene

Dire Dawa

Jimma

Mekele

Constant

29.67a

8.57b

35.52a

43.66a

17.23a

90.99a

Mar

4.65

-0.86

3.81

8.28

10.03

-10.80

April

-0.97

-0.17

3.25

3.62

0.15

-35.61

May

8.31

6.09

12.63b

7.36

1.36

-6.33

Jun

4.91

10.46b

18.50a

7.30

4.68

17.05

July

13.60b

6.60

14.17b

18.15b

1.18

72.27a

Aug

9.90

3.81

4.30

7.34

-1.53

53.97b

Sept

17.30c

5.35

5.29

6.96

1.88

57.71b

Oct

10.63

-4.09

-5.37

0.20

-9.80

62.80b

Nov

5.14

-7.19

3.13

2.07

-9.82

27.82

Dec

1.16

-2.79

3.64

-5.89

-6.63

-7.62

Jan

1.21

-1.81

1.05

1.87

0.97

-29.08

Dlib12

4.39

3.87c

10.93a

5.77

2.94

-27.52b

RF

-0.06b

-0.03

-0.10a

-0.11c

-0.00399

-0.62b

FAID

0.00015

0.0009

0.000568

0.00028

-0.013

0.00018

Pt-1

0.69a

0.87a

0.51a

0.63a

0.79a

0.62a

Diagnostics

R2

0.71

0.89

0.77

0.70

0.77

0.56

JB

5.33c

0.14

2.73

21.50a

45.75a

0.62

Q-S__________

9.61

17.08b

12.75

12.88

10.73

2.57

Note: a, b, and c indicate statistical significance at a probability of less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

-31-



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