The Response of Ethiopian Grain Markets to Liberalization

Table 9 SURE estimates of the effects of seasonality, grain market liberalization, rainfall and food aid on white

________________teff price levels based on the assumption of weak market integration (1984:10 to 1993:12)_____________

Independent variables '	Markets
Independent variables '	Addis Ababa	Hosaenna	Dire Dawa	Bako	Bahir Dar	Mekele
Constant	46.88^a	89.66^a	99.26^a	18.03^b	51.85^a	127.00^a
April	0.05	10.92	2.51	0.05	11.29^c	21.55^c
May	17.55^a	11.14	6.44	8.22^c	5.32	39.45^a
June	22.59^a	23.32^a	13.50	15.33^a	13.41^c	59.10^a
July	23.85^a	20.93^b	16.64	10.10^c	15.48^b	59.65^a
Aug	28.20^a	24.44^b	26.83^b	7.20	20.07^c	43.25^a
Sept	31.83^a	19.03^c	8.53	7.70	24.20	61.09^a
Oct	36.88^a	17.88^c	3.34	16.02^b	18.01	48.56^a
Nov	17.64^b	11.23	10.23	8.70	20.14^c	36.13^a
Dec	5.51	-5.46	-4.48	-3.12	24.37^a	17.94
Jan	1.67	-3.39	19.60^c	-9.92^b	1.53	-6.83
Feb	2.17	-3.06	5.91	-5.08	10.74	13.86
Dlib12	-0.47	24.96^a	-5.05	2.89	16.69^a	-48.83^a
RF	-0.10^a	-0.06	-0.03	-0.06^a	-0.05	-0.33^a
FAID	-0.000518^b	0.009156	-0.000166	0.0022	-0.0000606	-0.000148^b
Pt-1	0.80^a	0.37^a	0.65^a	0.89^a	0.62^a	0.69^a
Diagnostics
R2	0.83	0.66	0.54	0.87	0.73	0.95
JB	1.06	5.54^c	9.34^a	1.08	2.55	0.35
Q-S	5.19	11.30	5.38	4.47	5.65	11.94^c

Note: a, b, and c indicate statistical significance at a probability of less than 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

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