Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ Rate



Table 3: The trace test statistics for cointegration rank indices

p r

r

«2 = 7

«2 = 6

«2 = 5

«2 = 4

«2 = 3

«2 = 2

«2 = 1

«2 = 0

7

ɪ

1737.63

1402.12

1137.46

908.43

715.21

528.18

379.58

280.64

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

6

1

1115.86

885.59

659.57

470.53

319.31

190.76

160.82

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

5

2

646.64

455.20

271.26

141.15

94.27

93.63

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.19]

[0.02]

4

3

265.40

134.94

69.81

39.63

40.67

[0.00]

[0.00]

[0.72]

[0.99]

[0.82]

3

4

64.60

32.60

15.58

22.18

[0.77]

[1.00]

[1.00]

[0.90]

2

5

13.04

2.03

8.06

[1.00]

[1.00]

[0.98]

1

6

0.91

0.17

[^A]

[1.00]

test the following four hypotheses:

1. H1 : R'1τ = 0, where R1 = [1,1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], i.e. we test whether we can
impose the
ppp restriction on all τ vectors. If accepted it would imply that the
nominal to real transformation
x't = [pppt, p1,t, p2,t, b1,t, b2,t, s1,t, s2,t] would
be econometrically valid (Kongsted, 2005) in the sense of transforming an
I(2)
vector to an I(1) without loss of information. The hypothesis is rejected based
on
y2(5) = 16.64 [0.01].

2. H2 : R12τ = 0, where R12 = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,1,0], i.e. we test whether the broken
trend is long-run excludable from
τ. The hypothesis was borderline accepted
based
y2(5) = 9.99 [0.08] . Thus, there is only weak evidence that the direction of
the trend in relative prices and /or nominal exchange rates changed at the time
of the re-unification of Germany.

3. H3 : R3τ = 0, where R3 = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,1], i.e. we test whether the
3                         3

trend is long-run excludable from τ. The hypothesis was rejected based y2(5) =
13
.75 [0.02] . Thus, there is some evidence that the trend is econometrically needed
as a local approximation of the downward sloping trend in relative prices and in
the nominal exchange rate.

4.


H4 : R4τ = 0, where R14


0,0, 0, 0, 0,0, 0, 0,1

0,0, 0, 0, 0,0, 0,1, 0


, i.e. we test whether the


trends can be left out of the long-run relations. The hypothesis was rejected


based y2(10) = 24.50 [0.01] . Thus, the hypothesis that the downward sloping


trend strongly visible in Figure 1 is stochastic rather than deterministic is re-
jected. However, the hypotheses of no such trends were only borderline rejected,
which supports our prior assumption that a deterministic trend should only be
considered a local approximation.

17



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