The estimated fiscal reaction functions indicate a very low sensitivity of the primary
surplus to cyclical conditions (as measured by the output gap). As noted by the authors,
this suggests that pro-cyclical discretionary policy is offsetting the operation of automatic
stabilizers. There is evidence that such offsetting is asymmetric — i.e. that it mainly
occurs during upturns — thereby introducing a ratchet-effect on debt dynamics, with
significant implication for sustainability (Balassone and Francese, 2004).
57
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