Table 1: Age Trends
Trends in Raw Data |
Trends with Controls (see notes) | |||||
Age at Great |
Age at First |
Age at Great |
Age at First | |||
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) | |
Age Trend |
5.83*** |
4.86** |
6.57*** |
7.79*** |
8.18** |
6.71*** |
(1.37) |
(2.31) |
(0.95) |
(1.54) |
(3.29) |
(0.99) | |
Data |
Nobel |
Great |
U.S. Patent |
Nobel Prize Winner |
Great |
U.S. Patent |
Inventors |
Holders |
Inventors |
Holders | |||
Number of |
544 |
286 |
6,541 |
544 |
248 |
6,541 |
Time span |
1873- 1998 |
1900- 1991 |
1985-1999 |
1873- 1998 |
1900- 1988 |
1985-1999 |
Average age |
38.6 |
39.0 |
31.0 |
38.6 |
38.9 |
31.0 |
R2 |
0.032 |
0.016 |
0.007 |
0.189 |
0.173 |
0.020 |
Notes: All columns present |
trends in |
age, measured |
in years |
per century. |
Age at great |
achievement for Nobelists is the age at which the individual performed their prize-winning work,
pooling prize-winners in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics. For great inventors, age at
great achievement is drawn from technological almanacs and covers all major fields of science and
engineering. These data are described in detail in Jones (2010). Age at first patent, a different
construct, comes from patenting histories for individuals in the United States, observing data since
1975. These data are described in detail in Jones (2009). Columns (1)-(3) present trends in the raw
data, i.e. regressing age on time. Columns (4)-(5) present age trends while simultaneously
controlling for field fixed effects and country of birth fixed effects. Column (6) presents age trends
while controlling for field and patent assignee type fixed effects (e.g. corporation, government lab,
et cetera). Robust standard errors for the age trends are given in parentheses. ** Indicates
significance at a 95% confidence level. *** Indicates significance at a 99% confidence level.
Table 1 shows basic age trends for three groups. The first group is Nobel Prize winners
in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics. Such individuals have produced their award-
winning achievements at increasingly older ages, with the mean age at great achievement
increasing by 5.83 years over the 20th century (column 1). The second group is great
technological innovators, as listed in technological almanacs documenting major technological
breakthroughs through history. The noted breakthroughs have also come at increasingly older
ages, with the mean age at great achievement increasing by 4.86 years over the 20th century