Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 11



Table 1: Age Trends

Trends in Raw Data

Trends with Controls (see notes)

Age at Great
Achievement

Age at First
Patent

Age at Great
_____
Achievement

Age at First
Patent

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Age Trend
(Years per
Century)

5.83***

4.86**

6.57***

7.79***

8.18**

6.71***

(1.37)

(2.31)

(0.95)

(1.54)

(3.29)

(0.99)

Data

Nobel
Prize
Winners

Great

U.S. Patent

Nobel

Prize

Winner

Great

U.S. Patent

Inventors

Holders

Inventors

Holders

Number of
observations

544

286

6,541

544

248

6,541

Time span

1873-

1998

1900-

1991

1985-1999

1873-

1998

1900-

1988

1985-1999

Average age

38.6

39.0

31.0

38.6

38.9

31.0

R2

0.032

0.016

0.007

0.189

0.173

0.020

Notes: All columns present

trends in

age, measured

in years

per century.

Age at great

achievement for Nobelists is the age at which the individual performed their prize-winning work,
pooling prize-winners in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics. For great inventors, age at
great achievement is drawn from technological almanacs and covers all major fields of science and
engineering. These data are described in detail in Jones (2010). Age at first patent, a different
construct, comes from patenting histories for individuals in the United States, observing data since
1975. These data are described in detail in Jones (2009). Columns (1)-(3) present trends in the raw
data, i.e. regressing age on time. Columns (4)-(5) present age trends while simultaneously
controlling for field fixed effects and country of birth fixed effects. Column (6) presents age trends
while controlling for field and patent assignee type fixed effects (e.g. corporation, government lab,
et cetera). Robust standard errors for the age trends are given in parentheses. ** Indicates
significance at a 95% confidence level.
*** Indicates significance at a 99% confidence level.

Table 1 shows basic age trends for three groups. The first group is Nobel Prize winners
in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economics. Such individuals have produced their award-
winning achievements at increasingly older ages, with the mean age at great achievement
increasing by 5.83 years over the 20th century (column 1). The second group is great
technological innovators, as listed in technological almanacs documenting major technological
breakthroughs through history. The noted breakthroughs have also come at increasingly older
ages, with the mean age at great achievement increasing by 4.86 years over the 20th century



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