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Appendix

In this appendix we derive the likelihood function for the empirical model described by equations (1) and

(2) in the text. For simplicity of notation, we drop from the notation the dependence of functions on the
predictor variables
z and x and, where appropriate, Tf. Let Pf(kfθf) denote the probability ofenrolling in
college at time kf conditional on
θf and Pfc(kf]θf) equal the probability ofthe spell lasting longer than kf.

Then,

Pf( kf | θf ) = Sf( kf | θf ) - Sf(kf+1 | θf ),                                                                                  (A1)

Pfc( kf | θf ) = Sf( kf | θf ).                                                                                                  (A2)

In a manner similar to McCall (1996, p. 679), let Pg (ks | θg, θd), Pd(ks | θg, θd) and Psc(ks ^g, θd) be the
probability ofgraduation after ks years ofenrollment; dropping out after ks years ofenrollment; and right
censored after ks years of enrollment, respectively. Thus,

Pg( ks | θg, θd ) = S( ks ,ks| θg, θd )-S( ks+1,ks| θg, θd )-.5 [S( ks ,ks| θg, θd )+S( ks +1,ks+1| θg, θd)

-S( ks ,ks+1| θg, θd )-S( ks+1,ks| θg, θd )],                                                    (A3)

Pd( ks | θg, θd ) = S( ks ,ks| θg, θd )-S( ks ,ks+1| θg, θd )-.5 [S( ks ,ks| θg, θd )+S( ks +1,ks+1| θg, θd)

-S( ks ,ks+1| θg, θd )-S( ks+1,ks| θg, θd )],                                                    (A4)

and

Psc( ks | θg, θd ) = S( ks ,ks| θg, θd )                                                                                        (A5)

where the term

28



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