Table 6: Unconditional Convergence with Spatial Regimes, 1963—1997.
|
Sectors Models a Variables |
Total |
____________________Mining____________________ |
Construction | ||||||
|
OLS |
_____GM-HET_____ |
OLS |
_______GM-HET_______ |
OLS |
_______ML-HET_______ | ||||
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High | ||||
|
Constant |
4 97*** |
7.58*** |
2.45 |
4 37*** |
7.68*** |
5.02*** |
6.00*** |
9 Q3*** |
5.12 |
|
Log GDP 1963 |
-0.43*** |
-0 64*** |
-0.19 |
-0.38*** |
-0 64*** |
_Q 4Q*** |
-0.53*** |
-0.83*** |
-0.46 |
|
Lagged GDP growth |
0.25** | ||||||||
|
Spatial ARb |
0.54*** |
0.49 | |||||||
|
Convergence ratec |
1.67 |
2.92 |
0.6 |
1.37 |
2.92 |
1.46 |
2.16 |
5.06 |
1.76 |
|
R2 adjusted |
0.14 |
0.23 |
0.26 | ||||||
|
AIC |
-62.82 |
31.91 |
-46.86 |
-46.6 | |||||
|
LIK |
33.4 |
-13.95 |
25.43 |
28.3 | |||||
|
JBd |
5.06 |
1.88 |
5 | ||||||
|
BP |
0.05 |
0.14 |
0.91 | ||||||
|
Chow-Waldf |
1.91 |
0.71 |
3.02 | ||||||
|
I |
Q 42*** |
Q 24*** |
0.09 | ||||||
|
LM-error |
16.6*** |
5.58*** |
0.81 | ||||||
|
Robust LM-error |
0.64 |
8.08*** |
0.11 | ||||||
|
LM-Iag |
16.28*** |
1.75 |
1.27 | ||||||
|
Robust LM-Iag |
0.32 |
4.26*** |
0.57 | ||||||
|
LM-SARMA_______ |
16.92*** |
c) 34*** |
1.38 | ||||||
,' Significance at the 1, 5 and 10% level is signaled by ***, ** and *, respectively.
b Spatial Autoregressive parameter of the spatial error model.
c In percentage points per year. The convergence rate equals 100 × (ln(T+l))/-T, where b is the estimated coefficient for the GDP per capita level in 1963, and T the
length of the 1963—1997 time period.
dJarque Bera test for normality of the errors.
e Breusch-Pagan test with random coefficients as the alternative hypothesis.
f Chow-Wald test for stability of coefficients across regimes.
27
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