Growth and Technological Leadership in US Industries: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the State Level, 1963-1997



Table 6: Unconditional Convergence with Spatial Regimes, 1963—1997 (continued).

Sectors

______________Transportation/Utihties______________

Services

Financ

e Insurance

and Real Estate

Models a

OLS      ______ML-HET_____

OLS      GM-HET

OLS

GM-HET_______

Low      High

Low    High

Low

High

Variables

Constant

8.25***            12.33***       5.82

3 77***     5 93**    ɛ 92***

7.20***

13.78***

3.86

Log GDP 1963

-0.70***            -1.07***       -0.48

-0.33***    -0.55**   -0.82***

-0.58***

-1 15***

-0.31

Lagged GDP growth

0.37***

Spatial ARb

0.05***

0.63***

Convergence ratec

3.44              INDs        1.87

1.14        2.28       4.90

2.48

IND

1.06

R2 adjusted

0.23

0.07

0.21

AIC

-55.87

-50.11

-6.89

LIK

29.93

27.05

5.44

JBd

3.60

1.50

3.09

BP

5.06

3.68

0.00

Chow-Waldf

1.93

3.55

5.85***

I

Q 23***

0.14**

Q 4g***

LM-error

4.62**

1.75

21.82***

Robust LM-error

0.98

0.28

10.31***

LM-Iag

ɛ IQ***

1.50

13.70***

Robust LM-Iag

4.45**

0.02

2.20

LM-SARMA__________

9 Q7***

1.78_______________________________

24.01***

,' Significance at the 1, 5 and 10% level is signaled by ***, ** and *, respectively.

b Spatial Autoregressive parameter of the spatial error model.

c In percentage points per year. The convergence rate equals 100 × (ln(⅛+l))/-T, where b is the estimated coefficient for the GDP per capita level in 1963, and T
the length of the 1963—1997 time period.

dJarque Bera test for normality of the errors.

e Breusch-Pagan test with random coefficients as the alternative hypothesis.

f Chow-Wald test for stability of coefficients across regimes.

ɛ IND means the convergence rate could not be calculated because the estimated coefficient of the initial GDP per capita (in absolute value) is greater than one.



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