Table 6: Unconditional Convergence with Spatial Regimes, 1963—1997 (continued).
|
Sectors Modelsa- Variables |
Wholesale/Retail Trade |
________________Manufacturing________________ |
Government | ||||||
|
OLS |
GM-HET |
OLS |
________ML-HET________ |
OLS |
_______GM-HET_______ | ||||
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High | ||||
|
Constant |
1.33 |
10.03*** |
2.27 |
8.51*** |
6.63* |
ɪɪ 14*** |
4 06*** |
ð 54*** |
5.31** |
|
Log GDP 1963 |
-0.11 |
-0.95*** |
-0.19 |
-0 74*** |
-0.55 |
-0 98*** |
-0.35*** |
-0.60*** |
_Q 47*** |
|
Lagged GDP growth |
-0.24 | ||||||||
|
Spatial ARb |
Q 32*** |
Q 24*** | |||||||
|
Convergence ratec |
0.33 |
8.56 |
0.60 |
3.85 |
1.25 |
2.62 |
1.81 | ||
|
R2 adjusted |
0.01 |
0.35 |
0.23 | ||||||
|
AIC |
-86.74 |
-6.85 |
-75.53 | ||||||
|
LIK |
45.37 |
5.42 |
39.77 | ||||||
|
JBd |
5.86** |
221.46*** |
227.76*** | ||||||
|
BP |
0.38 |
1.15 |
0.04 | ||||||
|
Chow-Waldf |
5.80*** |
1.29 |
1.71 | ||||||
|
I |
0.15*** |
-0.08 |
0.12* | ||||||
|
LM-error |
2.23 |
0.58 |
1.27 | ||||||
|
Robust LM-error |
0.07 |
0.34 |
4.22** | ||||||
|
LM-Iag |
2.18 |
1.33 |
0.12 | ||||||
|
Robust LM-Iag |
0.02 |
1.08 |
3.07* | ||||||
|
LM-SARMA_______ |
2.24 |
1.67 |
_________4.33* | ||||||
,' Significance at the 1, 5 and 10% level is signaled by ***, ** and *, respectively.
b Spatial Autoregressive parameter of the spatial error model.
c In percentage points per year. The convergence rate equals 100 × (ln(⅛+l))/-T, where b is the estimated coefficient for the GDP per capita level in 1963, and T
the length of the 1963—1997 time period.
dJarque Bera test for normality of the errors.
e Breusch-Pagan test with random coefficients as the alternative hypothesis.
f Chow-Wald test for stability of coefficients across regimes.