Growth and Technological Leadership in US Industries: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the State Level, 1963-1997



Table 6: Unconditional Convergence with Spatial Regimes, 1963—1997 (continued).

Sectors

Modelsa-

Variables

Wholesale/Retail Trade

________________Manufacturing________________

Government

OLS

GM-HET

OLS

________ML-HET________

OLS

_______GM-HET_______

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Constant

1.33

10.03***

2.27

8.51***

6.63*

ɪɪ 14***

4 06***

ð 54***

5.31**

Log GDP 1963

-0.11

-0.95***

-0.19

-0 74***

-0.55

-0 98***

-0.35***

-0.60***

_Q 47***

Lagged GDP growth

-0.24

Spatial ARb

Q 32***

Q 24***

Convergence ratec

0.33

8.56

0.60

3.85

1.25

2.62

1.81

R2 adjusted

0.01

0.35

0.23

AIC

-86.74

-6.85

-75.53

LIK

45.37

5.42

39.77

JBd

5.86**

221.46***

227.76***

BP

0.38

1.15

0.04

Chow-Waldf

5.80***

1.29

1.71

I

0.15***

-0.08

0.12*

LM-error

2.23

0.58

1.27

Robust LM-error

0.07

0.34

4.22**

LM-Iag

2.18

1.33

0.12

Robust LM-Iag

0.02

1.08

3.07*

LM-SARMA_______

2.24

1.67

_________4.33*

,' Significance at the 1, 5 and 10% level is signaled by ***, ** and *, respectively.

b Spatial Autoregressive parameter of the spatial error model.

c In percentage points per year. The convergence rate equals 100 × (ln(⅛+l))/-T, where b is the estimated coefficient for the GDP per capita level in 1963, and T

the length of the 1963—1997 time period.

dJarque Bera test for normality of the errors.

e Breusch-Pagan test with random coefficients as the alternative hypothesis.

f Chow-Wald test for stability of coefficients across regimes.



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