Growth and Technological Leadership in US Industries: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the State Level, 1963-1997

Sectors

Manufacturing

Wholesale/Retail Trade

Government

Models^a

OLS

_______ML-HET_______

OLS

______GM-HET______

OLS

_____GM-HET______

Variables

Low

High

Low       High

Low       High

Constant

-0.459***

-1.660***

0.332

-0.200*

-0.252**        -0.280

0.170

0.066         0.331

Human capital

-0.012

-0.001

-0.002

0.010**

0.020***        0.006

0.036

0.018         -0.046

Spillover human capital

0.042***

0.058***

0.014

-0.004

-0.006         0.001

-0.002

0.001         -0.007

Spatial domestic effect

-0.048**

-0.032**

-0 114***

0.007

-0.058***       -0.001

-0.046

-0.046**        0.032

Catch-up

0.046***

0.055***

0.070***

-0.002

0.033***        0.016

0.015***

0.02***       0.02***

Log labor ratio

-0.829*

-1 711***

-0.569

-0.593***

-1.005***       -0.195

-0.157

-0.649**        0.179

Log capital ratio

0.386*

0.935***

0.260

0.310***

0.502***        0.135

0.045

0.330**        -0.137

Spatial AR parameter
Lagged GDP growth

-0.180

0.156***

0.400***

R² adjusted⁰
AIC

0.60

-26.17

0.45

-112.11

0.41

-83.79

LIK

20.08

63.05

48.90

JB

3.81

3.83

3.07

BP^d

14.56**

16.54***

20.57***

Chow-Wald^e

60.81***

35.01***

13.68**

I

-0.08

0.07

Q19***

LM-error

0.65

0.35

3.02*

Robust LM-error

2.77*

3.86**

10 47***

LM-Iag

4.25**

0.06

0.076

Robust LM-Iag

6.36**

3.58***

7.53***

LM-SARMA______

__________7.02**

3.94

10.55***

^,' Significance at the 1,

5 and 10% level is

'    1 AL *** **

signaled by ,

and *, respectively.