Table 11 - Estimations for S&P: high and low rated countries
|
________Pooled OLS_______ |
________Random Effects_______ |
_________Fixed Effects_________ | ||||
|
Above BBB+ (1) |
BBB+ and |
Above BBB+ (3) |
BBB+and |
Above BBB+ (5) |
BBB+and | |
|
Constant |
4.124** |
9.598*** |
10.338*** |
7.373*** |
14.748*** |
6.020*** |
|
(2.07) |
(8.16) |
(12.48) |
(19.25) |
(225.90) |
(81.45) | |
|
GDP per capita |
0.210 |
1.886*** |
0.290* |
1.998*** |
0.276** |
2.269*** |
|
(0.62) |
(5.41) |
(1.94) |
(6.42) |
(1.98) |
(8.60) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.829*** |
-0.281* | ||||
|
(3.83) |
(-1.73) | |||||
|
GDP growth |
-1.010 |
9.169*** |
-0.328 |
6.230* |
0.167 |
3.759 |
|
(-0.22) |
(2.87) |
(-0.16) |
(1.90) |
(0.09) |
(1.08) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. | ||||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.084*** |
0.088*** |
-0.099*** |
0.095*** | ||
|
(-3.70) |
(3.71) |
(-4.65) |
(3.96) | |||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.026 |
0.025 | ||||
|
(-1.18) |
(1.64) | |||||
|
Inflation |
-11.197*** |
-0.468*** |
-3.670** |
-0.234*** |
-3.221 |
-0.216*** |
|
(-2.98) |
(-3.41) |
(-1.98) |
(-5.66) |
(-1.55) |
(-5.65) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-10.477*** |
-0.521*** |
-3.495* |
-0.356*** | ||
|
(-279) |
(-3.51) |
(-1.85) |
(-3.08) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.017** |
-0.028*** |
-0.029*** |
-0.031*** |
-0.029*** |
-0.032*** |
|
(-2.27) |
(-4.06) |
(-7.63) |
(-4.71) |
(-7.67) |
(-4.90) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
0.001 |
-0.022*** |
-0.002 |
-0.020*** | ||
|
(0.25) |
(-6.57) |
(-0.23) |
(-3.81) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
0.725 |
4.989 |
-2.096 |
4.129 |
-3.123* |
5.579* |
|
(0.21) |
(1.31) |
(-1.18) |
(1.26) |
(-1.94) |
(1.85) | |
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
13.582*** |
10.104*** | ||||
|
(5.14) |
(2.22) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.363** |
0.477** |
0.379*** |
0.514** | ||
|
(2.51) |
(2.04) |
(2.52) |
(2.24) | |||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
1.119*** |
2.790*** |
1.894*** |
2.732*** | ||
|
(5.84) |
(13.84) |
(4.04) |
(8.77) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.002 |
-0.002 | ||||
|
(-1.18) |
(-0.77) | |||||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.006*** |
-0.006** | ||||
|
(-4.39) |
(-2.12) | |||||
|
Current Account |
0.912 |
-6.384*** |
-0.980 |
0.173 | ||
|
(0.37) |
(-2.94) |
(-0.58) |
(0.10) | |||
|
Current Account Avg. Reserves | ||||||
|
Reserves Avg. |
-0.520 |
2.676*** |
-0.311 |
2.293** | ||
|
(-0.92) |
(5.91) |
(-0.25) |
(2.43) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-0.842*** |
-1.390*** |
-1.513*** | |||
|
(-4.16) |
(-6.68) |
(-6.87) | ||||
|
Def 2 | ||||||
|
EU (2) |
0.556*** |
0.778*** |
0.005 |
0.256 | ||
|
(3.43) |
(3.28) |
(0.03) |
(1.15) | |||
|
IND |
1.869*** |
1.111** |
2.475*** |
0.445 | ||
|
(7.46) |
(2.20) |
(3.81) |
(0.59) | |||
|
LAC |
-0.428* | |||||
|
(-1.91) | ||||||
|
R2 |
0.813 |
0.838 |
0.745 |
0.814 |
0.975 |
0.934 |
|
Countries |
42 |
40 |
42 |
40 |
42 |
42 |
|
Observations |
330 |
297 |
327 |
297 |
327 |
330 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
12.97 (0.164) |
16.29 (0.131) | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 9 and 11 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were
removed from the estimation above BBB+ because there where few observation points) . The p-value is in brackets.
43
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