The name is absent



Table 11 - Estimations for S&P: high and low rated countries

________Pooled OLS_______

________Random Effects_______

_________Fixed Effects_________

Above BBB+

(1)

BBB+ and
below (2)

Above BBB+

(3)

BBB+and
below (4)

Above BBB+

(5)

BBB+and
below (6)

Constant

4.124**

9.598***

10.338***

7.373***

14.748***

6.020***

(2.07)

(8.16)

(12.48)

(19.25)

(225.90)

(81.45)

GDP per capita

0.210

1.886***

0.290*

1.998***

0.276**

2.269***

(0.62)

(5.41)

(1.94)

(6.42)

(1.98)

(8.60)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.829***

-0.281*

(3.83)

(-1.73)

GDP growth

-1.010

9.169***

-0.328

6.230*

0.167

3.759

(-0.22)

(2.87)

(-0.16)

(1.90)

(0.09)

(1.08)

GDP growth Avg.

Unemployment

-0.084***

0.088***

-0.099***

0.095***

(-3.70)

(3.71)

(-4.65)

(3.96)

Unemployment Avg.

-0.026

0.025

(-1.18)

(1.64)

Inflation

-11.197***

-0.468***

-3.670**

-0.234***

-3.221

-0.216***

(-2.98)

(-3.41)

(-1.98)

(-5.66)

(-1.55)

(-5.65)

Inflation Avg.

-10.477***

-0.521***

-3.495*

-0.356***

(-279)

(-3.51)

(-1.85)

(-3.08)

Gov Debt

-0.017**

-0.028***

-0.029***

-0.031***

-0.029***

-0.032***

(-2.27)

(-4.06)

(-7.63)

(-4.71)

(-7.67)

(-4.90)

Gov Debt Avg.

0.001

-0.022***

-0.002

-0.020***

(0.25)

(-6.57)

(-0.23)

(-3.81)

Gov Balance

0.725

4.989

-2.096

4.129

-3.123*

5.579*

(0.21)

(1.31)

(-1.18)

(1.26)

(-1.94)

(1.85)

Gov Balance Avg.

13.582***

10.104***

(5.14)

(2.22)

Gov Effectiveness

0.363**

0.477**

0.379***

0.514**

(2.51)

(2.04)

(2.52)

(2.24)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

1.119***

2.790***

1.894***

2.732***

(5.84)

(13.84)

(4.04)

(8.77)

External Debt

-0.002

-0.002

(-1.18)

(-0.77)

External Debt Avg.

-0.006***

-0.006**

(-4.39)

(-2.12)

Current Account

0.912

-6.384***

-0.980

0.173

(0.37)

(-2.94)

(-0.58)

(0.10)

Current Account Avg.

Reserves

Reserves Avg.

-0.520

2.676***

-0.311

2.293**

(-0.92)

(5.91)

(-0.25)

(2.43)

Def 1

-0.842***

-1.390***

-1.513***

(-4.16)

(-6.68)

(-6.87)

Def 2

EU (2)

0.556***

0.778***

0.005

0.256

(3.43)

(3.28)

(0.03)

(1.15)

IND

1.869***

1.111**

2.475***

0.445

(7.46)

(2.20)

(3.81)

(0.59)

LAC

-0.428*

(-1.91)

R2

0.813

0.838

0.745

0.814

0.975

0.934

Countries

42

40

42

40

42

42

Observations

330

297

327

297

327

330

Hausman Test $________

12.97 (0.164)

16.29 (0.131)

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 9 and 11 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were
removed from the estimation above BBB+ because there where few observation points) . The p-value is in brackets.

43



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