Table 8 - Estimations for S&P: two sub-periods
|
________Pooled OLS________ |
Random Effects |
Fixed Effects | ||||
|
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 |
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 |
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 | |
|
Constant |
3.744*** |
1.648 |
7.496*** |
8.006*** |
10.519*** |
10.079*** |
|
(2.41) |
(1.12) |
(13.57) |
(15.63) |
(225.94) |
(21.00) | |
|
GDP per capita |
3.159*** |
0.629*** |
2.059*** |
0.876*** |
2.063*** |
1.566*** |
|
(4.86) |
(1.95) |
(3.44) |
(4.17) |
(3.35) |
(8.05) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.562*** |
0.896*** | ||||
|
(2.73) |
(4.54) | |||||
|
GDP growth |
4.236 |
6.115 |
5.864** |
4.559 |
7.955** |
2.715 |
|
(1.06) |
(1.50) |
(1.88) |
(1.17) |
(2.25) |
(0.61) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. | ||||||
|
Unemployment |
0.109*** |
-0.003 |
0.080** |
-0.047 | ||
|
(2.89) |
(-0.06) |
(1.85) |
(-0.85) | |||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.036*** |
0.006 | ||||
|
(-2.16) |
(0.40) | |||||
|
Inflation |
-0.457*** |
-6.513*** |
-0.129*** |
-1.024 |
-0.156*** |
-0.219 |
|
(-2.86) |
(-4.33) |
(-2.81) |
(-0.81) |
(-3.15) |
(-0.18) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-0.617*** |
-6.692*** |
-0.407* |
-1.012 | ||
|
(-3.49) |
(-4.41) |
(-1.84) |
(-0.79) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.029*** |
-0.024*** |
-0.041*** |
-0.020* |
-0.038*** |
-0.015 |
|
(-2.71) |
(-3.35) |
(-4.53) |
(-1.91) |
(-3.47) |
(-1.07) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.008* |
-0.018*** |
-0.014** |
-0.013** | ||
|
(-1.76) |
(-4.84) |
(-2.16) |
(-2.24) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
5.140 |
6.695 |
3.849 |
8.296** |
3.144 |
7.047* |
|
(1.17) |
(1.63) |
(1.23) |
(2.18) |
(0.82) |
(1.88) | |
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
9.078** |
-3.677 | ||||
|
(2.20) |
(-0.83) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.359* |
-0.074 |
0.493** |
0.572* | ||
|
(1.71) |
(-0.29) |
(2.41) |
(1.80) | |||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
2.098*** |
1.918*** |
2.433*** |
2.922*** | ||
|
(9.34) |
(8.44) |
(6.23) |
(8.48) | |||
|
External Debt |
0.003 |
-0.008** |
0.002 |
-0.008** | ||
|
(0.81) |
(-2.46) |
(0.79) |
(-2.13) | |||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.007*** |
-0.007*** |
-0.006** |
-0.010** | ||
|
(-4.16) |
(-3.90) |
(-2.03) |
(-2.44) | |||
|
Current Account |
-7.098** |
-0.304 |
-5.781** |
-0.867 | ||
|
(-2.30) |
(-0.09) |
(-2.37) |
(-0.31) | |||
|
Current Account Avg. | ||||||
|
Reserves | ||||||
|
Reserves Avg. |
1.896*** |
1.397*** |
1.675 |
1.618** | ||
|
(3.26) |
(2.87) |
(1.51) |
(1.97) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-0.845*** |
-1.256** |
-1.504*** |
-1.169** |
-1.588 |
-0.941 |
|
(-2.60) |
(-5.40) |
(-4.71) |
(-2.37) |
(-4.65) |
(-1.06) | |
|
Def 2 | ||||||
|
EU (2) |
1.001*** |
0.960*** |
0.816 |
0.663*** | ||
|
(3.50) |
(4.67) |
(1.60) |
(3.45) | |||
|
IND |
2.560*** |
1.789*** |
3.901*** |
2.513*** | ||
|
(6.15) |
(4.92) |
(4.47) |
(3.53) | |||
|
LAC |
-0.882 |
-0.674*** | ||||
|
(-3.98) |
(-2.82) | |||||
|
R2 |
0.944 |
0.967 |
0.939 |
0.959 |
0.990 |
0.991 |
|
Countries |
64 |
65 |
63 |
65 |
67 |
74 |
|
Observations |
290 |
278 |
288 |
277 |
308 |
349 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
7.84 (0.644) |
16.86 (0.112) | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 10 and 11 degrees of freedom respectively (the variable EU (2) is time invariant in
the second sample) . The p-value is in brackets.
40
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