Table 7 - Estimations for Moody’s: two sub-periods
|
Pooled OLS |
Random Effects |
Fixed Effects | ||||
|
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 (2) |
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 (4) |
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 (6) | |
|
Constant |
6.593*** |
-0.434 |
8.299*** |
8.222*** |
10.434*** |
9.968*** |
|
(3.89) |
(-0.21) |
(11.80) |
(10.16) |
(165.01) |
(28.21) | |
|
GDP per capita |
1.640** |
0.846** |
1.667*** |
1.074*** |
1.709*** |
1.306*** |
|
(2.44) |
(2.07) |
(2.75) |
(4.43) |
(2.75) |
(6.17) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.288 |
1.276*** | ||||
|
(1.29) |
(4.60) | |||||
|
GDP growth |
2.989 |
13.248** |
4.222 |
9.358* |
3.731 |
4.752 |
|
(0.64) |
(2.51) |
(0.98) |
(1.83) |
(0.89) |
(1.18) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. | ||||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.090*** |
-0.097** | ||||
|
(-2.55) |
(-2.23) | |||||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.050*** |
-0.043** |
-0.067 |
-0.067 | ||
|
(-2.74) |
(-2.14) |
(-1.54) |
(-1.40) | |||
|
Inflation |
-0.340*** |
-4.834*** |
-0.049 |
0.205 |
0.055 |
0.197 |
|
(-2.78) |
(-2.82) |
(-0.53) |
(0.21) |
(0.79) |
(0.21) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-0.513*** |
-5.240*** |
-0.269 |
-0.031 | ||
|
(-4.04) |
(-3.03) |
(-1.30) |
(-0.03) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.030*** |
-0.019** |
-0.025*** |
-0.018 |
-0.022*** |
-0.011 |
|
(-2.76) |
(-2.51) |
(-2.68) |
(-1.60) |
(-2.74) |
(-1.05) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.018*** |
-0.021*** |
-0.014** |
-0.014* | ||
|
(-3.88) |
(-4.29) |
(-1.93) |
(-1.90) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
7.643** |
3.110 |
7.415** |
2.169 | ||
|
(1.91) |
(0.71) |
(2.00) |
(0.64) | |||
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
6.351 |
0.271 | ||||
|
(1.39) |
(0.05) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.184 |
0.455 | ||||
|
(0.70) |
(1.37) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
1.831*** |
1.198*** |
2.313*** |
2.629*** | ||
|
(7.00) |
(4.35) |
(5.45) |
(6.25) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.014*** |
-0.006** |
-0.007** |
0.000 | ||
|
(-7.38) |
(-2.51) |
(-2.40) |
(-0.02) | |||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.008*** |
-0.004** |
-0.005** |
-0.002 | ||
|
(-6.16) |
(-2.12) |
(-2.48) |
(-0.60) | |||
|
Current Account |
-9.369*** |
-4.944 |
-7.767*** |
-2.553 |
-5.338** |
0.929 |
|
(-3.17) |
(-1.50) |
(-2.68) |
(-0.85) |
(-2.06) |
(0.40) | |
|
Current Account Avg. | ||||||
|
Reserves |
0.988 |
1.368** |
0.065 |
2.462*** |
-0.549 |
1.669*** |
|
(0.91) |
(2.11) |
(-0.08) |
(3.76) |
(-0.87) |
(2.72) | |
|
Reserves Avg. |
1.660** |
1.831*** |
0.845 |
0.773 | ||
|
(2.32) |
(3.30) |
(0.79) |
(0.70) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-0.783** |
-2.303*** |
-1.764*** |
-2.281*** |
-2.088*** |
-2.171*** |
|
(-2.22) |
(-6.21) |
(-5.07) |
(-3.93) |
(-5.00) |
(-2.59) | |
|
Def 2 |
0.046 |
0.158*** | ||||
|
(1.34) |
(4.93) | |||||
|
EU (2) |
1.381*** |
1.095*** |
1.099*** |
1.803*** |
1.392*** | |
|
(4.98) |
(4.81) |
(2.64) |
(7.69) |
(3.70) | ||
|
IND |
3.411*** |
1.987*** |
3.787*** |
3.157*** | ||
|
(6.74) |
(3.64) |
(4.43) |
(3.93) | |||
|
LAC |
-1.057*** |
-1.614*** | ||||
|
(-3.97) |
(-5.08) | |||||
|
R2 |
0.949 |
0.957 |
0.941 |
0.944 |
0.988 |
0.989 |
|
Countries |
64 |
65 |
64 |
65 |
75 |
77 |
|
Observations |
280 |
277 |
280 |
277 |
324 |
375 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
12.86 (0.169) |
14.31 (0.112) # | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 9 degrees of freedom. The p-value is in brackets. # The Hausman test was done
excluding External Debt, as it was highly non-significant and seemed correlated with the errors in this particular sample.
39
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