The name is absent



Table 7 - Estimations for Moody’s: two sub-periods

Pooled OLS

Random Effects

Fixed Effects

1996-2000
(1)

2001-2005

(2)

1996-2000
(3)

2001-2005

(4)

1996-2000
(5)

2001-2005

(6)

Constant

6.593***

-0.434

8.299***

8.222***

10.434***

9.968***

(3.89)

(-0.21)

(11.80)

(10.16)

(165.01)

(28.21)

GDP per capita

1.640**

0.846**

1.667***

1.074***

1.709***

1.306***

(2.44)

(2.07)

(2.75)

(4.43)

(2.75)

(6.17)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.288

1.276***

(1.29)

(4.60)

GDP growth

2.989

13.248**

4.222

9.358*

3.731

4.752

(0.64)

(2.51)

(0.98)

(1.83)

(0.89)

(1.18)

GDP growth Avg.

Unemployment

-0.090***

-0.097**

(-2.55)

(-2.23)

Unemployment Avg.

-0.050***

-0.043**

-0.067

-0.067

(-2.74)

(-2.14)

(-1.54)

(-1.40)

Inflation

-0.340***

-4.834***

-0.049

0.205

0.055

0.197

(-2.78)

(-2.82)

(-0.53)

(0.21)

(0.79)

(0.21)

Inflation Avg.

-0.513***

-5.240***

-0.269

-0.031

(-4.04)

(-3.03)

(-1.30)

(-0.03)

Gov Debt

-0.030***

-0.019**

-0.025***

-0.018

-0.022***

-0.011

(-2.76)

(-2.51)

(-2.68)

(-1.60)

(-2.74)

(-1.05)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.018***

-0.021***

-0.014**

-0.014*

(-3.88)

(-4.29)

(-1.93)

(-1.90)

Gov Balance

7.643**

3.110

7.415**

2.169

(1.91)

(0.71)

(2.00)

(0.64)

Gov Balance Avg.

6.351

0.271

(1.39)

(0.05)

Gov Effectiveness

0.184

0.455

(0.70)

(1.37)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

1.831***

1.198***

2.313***

2.629***

(7.00)

(4.35)

(5.45)

(6.25)

External Debt

-0.014***

-0.006**

-0.007**

0.000

(-7.38)

(-2.51)

(-2.40)

(-0.02)

External Debt Avg.

-0.008***

-0.004**

-0.005**

-0.002

(-6.16)

(-2.12)

(-2.48)

(-0.60)

Current Account

-9.369***

-4.944

-7.767***

-2.553

-5.338**

0.929

(-3.17)

(-1.50)

(-2.68)

(-0.85)

(-2.06)

(0.40)

Current Account Avg.

Reserves

0.988

1.368**

0.065

2.462***

-0.549

1.669***

(0.91)

(2.11)

(-0.08)

(3.76)

(-0.87)

(2.72)

Reserves Avg.

1.660**

1.831***

0.845

0.773

(2.32)

(3.30)

(0.79)

(0.70)

Def 1

-0.783**

-2.303***

-1.764***

-2.281***

-2.088***

-2.171***

(-2.22)

(-6.21)

(-5.07)

(-3.93)

(-5.00)

(-2.59)

Def 2

0.046

0.158***

(1.34)

(4.93)

EU (2)

1.381***

1.095***

1.099***

1.803***

1.392***

(4.98)

(4.81)

(2.64)

(7.69)

(3.70)

IND

3.411***

1.987***

3.787***

3.157***

(6.74)

(3.64)

(4.43)

(3.93)

LAC

-1.057***

-1.614***

(-3.97)

(-5.08)

R2

0.949

0.957

0.941

0.944

0.988

0.989

Countries

64

65

64

65

75

77

Observations

280

277

280

277

324

375

Hausman Test $________

12.86 (0.169)

14.31 (0.112) #

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 9 degrees of freedom. The p-value is in brackets. # The Hausman test was done
excluding External Debt, as it was highly non-significant and seemed correlated with the errors in this particular sample.

39



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