Table 10 - Estimations for Moody’s: high and low rated countries
|
________Pooled OLS_______ |
Random Effects |
Fixed Effects | ||||
|
Above BBB+ (1) |
BBB+ and |
Above BBB+ (3) |
BBB+ and |
Above BBB+ (5) |
BBB+ and | |
|
Constant |
8.496*** |
8.526*** |
9.606*** |
8.298*** |
14.243*** |
6.303*** |
|
(6.17) |
(6.13) |
(9.90) |
(14.06) |
(87.56) |
(60.59) | |
|
GDP per capita |
0.863*** |
1.132** |
1192*** |
1.591*** |
1.197*** |
1.684*** |
|
(3.11) |
(2.09) |
(6.64) |
(3.07) |
(6.73) |
(4.41) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.274 |
-0.021 | ||||
|
(1.71) |
(-0.12) | |||||
|
GDP growth |
1.210 |
6.393 |
1.747 |
6.927* |
1.600 |
4.976 |
|
(0.24) |
(1.63) |
(0.48) |
(1.74) |
(0.44) |
(1.50) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. | ||||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.139*** |
-0.080** | ||||
|
(-3.71) |
(-2.37) | |||||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.004 |
-0.007 |
-0.005 |
-0.059 | ||
|
(-0.20) |
(-0.36) |
(-0.08) |
(-1.46) | |||
|
Inflation |
-6.363* |
-0.405*** |
-4.171* |
-0.174** |
-3.994* |
-0.138** |
|
(-1.79) |
(-3.43) |
(-1.75) |
(-2.26) |
(-1.69) |
(-2.39) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-6.272* |
-0.547*** |
-4.676* |
-0.333** | ||
|
(-177) |
(-4.29) |
(-1.81) |
(-2.28) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.007 |
-0.020** |
-0.018*** |
-0.018** |
-0.020*** |
-0.018*** |
|
(-0.93) |
(-2.54) |
(-3.04) |
(-2.06) |
(-3.53) |
(-2.97) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.002 |
-0.028** |
-0.005 |
-0.019*** | ||
|
(-0.70) |
(-6.73) |
(-0.80) |
(-3.38) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
6.955*** |
2.931 |
5.843*** |
3.009 | ||
|
(2.90) |
(0.59) |
(3.20) |
(0.95) | |||
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
12.504*** |
5.168 | ||||
|
(4.48) |
(0.95) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.214 |
0.591* | ||||
|
(1.27) |
(1.66) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
1.490*** |
2.132*** |
2.436*** |
2.359*** | ||
|
(7.86) |
(9.64) |
(5.15) |
(6.98) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.010*** |
-0.005* | ||||
|
(-5.47) |
(-1.96) | |||||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.006*** |
-0.004** | ||||
|
(-5.06) |
(-2.33) | |||||
|
Current Account |
1.186 |
-7.238*** |
-2.922 |
-7.595*** |
-2.386 |
-3.367** |
|
(0.51) |
(-2.93) |
(-1.59) |
(-2.95) |
(-1.33) |
(-1.98) | |
|
Current Account Avg. | ||||||
|
Reserves |
2.130*** |
1.470** |
1.112** |
2.269*** |
1.013*** |
1.664*** |
|
(3.42) |
(2.27) |
(2.48) |
(4.04) |
(2.50) |
(3.61) | |
|
Reserves Avg. |
0.139 |
1.967*** |
1.082 |
0.607 | ||
|
(0.20) |
(3.61) |
(0.84) |
(0.64) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-1.514*** |
-1.956*** |
-2.192*** | |||
|
(-5.68) |
(-7.37) |
(-7.30) | ||||
|
Def 2 |
0.092*** | |||||
|
(3.67) | ||||||
|
EU (2) |
0.611*** |
2.803*** |
0.591** |
2.272*** |
0.601*** |
2.245*** |
|
(3.83) |
(5.64) |
(2.28) |
(6.24) |
(2.27) |
(13.65) | |
|
IND |
2.194*** |
1.821 | ||||
|
(9.49) |
(2.86) | |||||
|
LAC |
-0.755*** | |||||
|
(-3.24) | ||||||
|
R2 |
0.815 |
0.832 |
0.785 |
0.795 |
0.955 |
0.923 |
|
Countries |
33 |
42 |
39 |
42 |
41 |
49 |
|
Observations |
324 |
291 |
324 |
291 |
336 |
363 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
4.89(8) (0.768) |
20.68 (0.023)* | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 8 and 10 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were
removed from the estimation above BBB+ because there where few observation points). The p-value is in brackets.
42
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