The name is absent



Table 10 - Estimations for Moody’s: high and low rated countries

________Pooled OLS_______

Random Effects

Fixed Effects

Above BBB+

(1)

BBB+ and
below (2)

Above BBB+

(3)

BBB+ and
below (4)

Above BBB+

(5)

BBB+ and
below (6)

Constant

8.496***

8.526***

9.606***

8.298***

14.243***

6.303***

(6.17)

(6.13)

(9.90)

(14.06)

(87.56)

(60.59)

GDP per capita

0.863***

1.132**

1192***

1.591***

1.197***

1.684***

(3.11)

(2.09)

(6.64)

(3.07)

(6.73)

(4.41)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.274

-0.021

(1.71)

(-0.12)

GDP growth

1.210

6.393

1.747

6.927*

1.600

4.976

(0.24)

(1.63)

(0.48)

(1.74)

(0.44)

(1.50)

GDP growth Avg.

Unemployment

-0.139***

-0.080**

(-3.71)

(-2.37)

Unemployment Avg.

-0.004

-0.007

-0.005

-0.059

(-0.20)

(-0.36)

(-0.08)

(-1.46)

Inflation

-6.363*

-0.405***

-4.171*

-0.174**

-3.994*

-0.138**

(-1.79)

(-3.43)

(-1.75)

(-2.26)

(-1.69)

(-2.39)

Inflation Avg.

-6.272*

-0.547***

-4.676*

-0.333**

(-177)

(-4.29)

(-1.81)

(-2.28)

Gov Debt

-0.007

-0.020**

-0.018***

-0.018**

-0.020***

-0.018***

(-0.93)

(-2.54)

(-3.04)

(-2.06)

(-3.53)

(-2.97)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.002

-0.028**

-0.005

-0.019***

(-0.70)

(-6.73)

(-0.80)

(-3.38)

Gov Balance

6.955***

2.931

5.843***

3.009

(2.90)

(0.59)

(3.20)

(0.95)

Gov Balance Avg.

12.504***

5.168

(4.48)

(0.95)

Gov Effectiveness

0.214

0.591*

(1.27)

(1.66)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

1.490***

2.132***

2.436***

2.359***

(7.86)

(9.64)

(5.15)

(6.98)

External Debt

-0.010***

-0.005*

(-5.47)

(-1.96)

External Debt Avg.

-0.006***

-0.004**

(-5.06)

(-2.33)

Current Account

1.186

-7.238***

-2.922

-7.595***

-2.386

-3.367**

(0.51)

(-2.93)

(-1.59)

(-2.95)

(-1.33)

(-1.98)

Current Account Avg.

Reserves

2.130***

1.470**

1.112**

2.269***

1.013***

1.664***

(3.42)

(2.27)

(2.48)

(4.04)

(2.50)

(3.61)

Reserves Avg.

0.139

1.967***

1.082

0.607

(0.20)

(3.61)

(0.84)

(0.64)

Def 1

-1.514***

-1.956***

-2.192***

(-5.68)

(-7.37)

(-7.30)

Def 2

0.092***

(3.67)

EU (2)

0.611***

2.803***

0.591**

2.272***

0.601***

2.245***

(3.83)

(5.64)

(2.28)

(6.24)

(2.27)

(13.65)

IND

2.194***

1.821

(9.49)

(2.86)

LAC

-0.755***

(-3.24)

R2

0.815

0.832

0.785

0.795

0.955

0.923

Countries

33

42

39

42

41

49

Observations

324

291

324

291

336

363

Hausman Test $________

4.89(8) (0.768)

20.68 (0.023)*

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 8 and 10 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were
removed from the estimation above BBB+ because there where few observation points). The p-value is in brackets.

42



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