The name is absent



Table 12 - Estimations for Fitch: high and low rated countries

________Pooled OLS_______

_______Random Effects______

__________Fixed Effects_________

Above BBB+

(1)

BBB+ and

below (2)

Above BBB+

(3)

BBB+ and

below (4)

Above BBB+

(5)

BBB+ and below

(6)

Constant

5.438***

5.201***

10.299***

6.941 ***

14.644***

6.555***

(3.38)

(3.61)

(9.49)

(16.60)

(170.63)

(59.37)

GDP per capita

0.740**

2.488***

1.101***

2.350***

1.159***

2.416***

(2.16)

(5.96)

(6.59)

(6.85)

(7.40)

(7.35)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.823***

0.270

(4.44)

(1.46)

GDP growth

3.170

0.531

(1.38)

(0.16)

GDP growth Avg.

Unemployment

Unemployment Avg.

Inflation

-16.326***

-0.364***

-4.069*

-0.137

(-4.88)

(-4.18)

(-1.72)

(-1.49)

Inflation Avg.

-17.617***

-0.338***

(-5.36)

(-3.39)

Gov Debt

-0.003

-0.028***

-0.023***

-0.025***

-0.018***

-0.024***

(-0.50)

(-3.80)

(-7.04)

(-3.88)

(-5.51)

(-3.27)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.007***

0.000

(-2.65)

(-0.05)

Gov Balance

4.214**

2.290

(2.25)

(0.56)

Gov Balance Avg.

12.403***

10.113**

(5.04)

(2.32)

Gov Effectiveness

-0.029

0.875**

0.572***

0.913***

0.593***

0.818***

(-0.08)

(2.31)

(3.27)

(3.38)

(3.35)

(2.99)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

0.839***

2.103***

1.447

2.507***

(4.50)

(7.65)

(1.62)

(6.76)

External Debt

-0.002

-0.004**

-0.005**

(-1.07)

(-2.25)

(-2.32)

External Debt Avg.

-0.011***

-0.013***

(-6.62)

(-4.27)

Current Account

Current Account Avg.

Reserves

Reserves Avg.

-0.928

4.042***

0.122

4.039***

(-1.53)

(6.27)

(0.07)

(3.64)

Def 1

-1.159***

-1.236***

-1.325***

(-5.75)

(-4.52)

(-4.28)

Def 2

EU

0.525***

-0.241

0.433*

-0.569

(3.32)

(-0.46)

(1.71)

(-1.30)

IND

1.473***

2.552**

(5.55)

(2.06)

LAC

-0.649***

(-3.32)

R2

0.832

0.830

0.669

0.812

0.973

0.924

Countries

38

33

39

33

38

33

Observations

296

229

301

229

296

229

Hausman Test $________

5.91 (0.315)

2.42 (0.933)

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically significant at
the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test statistic is to be
compared to a Qui-Square with 5 and 7 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were removed from the estimation
above BBB+ because there where few observation points). The p-value is in brackets.

44



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