Table 12 - Estimations for Fitch: high and low rated countries
|
________Pooled OLS_______ |
_______Random Effects______ |
__________Fixed Effects_________ | ||||
|
Above BBB+ (1) |
BBB+ and below (2) |
Above BBB+ (3) |
BBB+ and below (4) |
Above BBB+ (5) |
BBB+ and below (6) | |
|
Constant |
5.438*** |
5.201*** |
10.299*** |
6.941 *** |
14.644*** |
6.555*** |
|
(3.38) |
(3.61) |
(9.49) |
(16.60) |
(170.63) |
(59.37) | |
|
GDP per capita |
0.740** |
2.488*** |
1.101*** |
2.350*** |
1.159*** |
2.416*** |
|
(2.16) |
(5.96) |
(6.59) |
(6.85) |
(7.40) |
(7.35) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.823*** |
0.270 | ||||
|
(4.44) |
(1.46) | |||||
|
GDP growth |
3.170 |
0.531 | ||||
|
(1.38) |
(0.16) | |||||
|
GDP growth Avg. | ||||||
|
Unemployment | ||||||
|
Unemployment Avg. | ||||||
|
Inflation |
-16.326*** |
-0.364*** |
-4.069* |
-0.137 | ||
|
(-4.88) |
(-4.18) |
(-1.72) |
(-1.49) | |||
|
Inflation Avg. |
-17.617*** |
-0.338*** | ||||
|
(-5.36) |
(-3.39) | |||||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.003 |
-0.028*** |
-0.023*** |
-0.025*** |
-0.018*** |
-0.024*** |
|
(-0.50) |
(-3.80) |
(-7.04) |
(-3.88) |
(-5.51) |
(-3.27) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.007*** |
0.000 | ||||
|
(-2.65) |
(-0.05) | |||||
|
Gov Balance |
4.214** |
2.290 | ||||
|
(2.25) |
(0.56) | |||||
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
12.403*** |
10.113** | ||||
|
(5.04) |
(2.32) | |||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
-0.029 |
0.875** |
0.572*** |
0.913*** |
0.593*** |
0.818*** |
|
(-0.08) |
(2.31) |
(3.27) |
(3.38) |
(3.35) |
(2.99) | |
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
0.839*** |
2.103*** |
1.447 |
2.507*** | ||
|
(4.50) |
(7.65) |
(1.62) |
(6.76) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.002 |
-0.004** |
-0.005** | |||
|
(-1.07) |
(-2.25) |
(-2.32) | ||||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.011*** |
-0.013*** | ||||
|
(-6.62) |
(-4.27) | |||||
|
Current Account | ||||||
|
Current Account Avg. | ||||||
|
Reserves | ||||||
|
Reserves Avg. |
-0.928 |
4.042*** |
0.122 |
4.039*** | ||
|
(-1.53) |
(6.27) |
(0.07) |
(3.64) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-1.159*** |
-1.236*** |
-1.325*** | |||
|
(-5.75) |
(-4.52) |
(-4.28) | ||||
|
Def 2 | ||||||
|
EU |
0.525*** |
-0.241 |
0.433* |
-0.569 | ||
|
(3.32) |
(-0.46) |
(1.71) |
(-1.30) | |||
|
IND |
1.473*** |
2.552** | ||||
|
(5.55) |
(2.06) | |||||
|
LAC |
-0.649*** | |||||
|
(-3.32) | ||||||
|
R2 |
0.832 |
0.830 |
0.669 |
0.812 |
0.973 |
0.924 |
|
Countries |
38 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
38 |
33 |
|
Observations |
296 |
229 |
301 |
229 |
296 |
229 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
5.91 (0.315) |
2.42 (0.933) | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically significant at
the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test statistic is to be
compared to a Qui-Square with 5 and 7 degrees of freedom respectively (the variables on External debt were removed from the estimation
above BBB+ because there where few observation points). The p-value is in brackets.
44
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