The name is absent



Table 9 - Estimations for Fitch: two sub-periods

________Pooled OLS________

Random Effects

Fixed Effects

1996-2000
(1)

2001-2005
(2)

1996-2000
(3)

2001-2005
(4)

1996-2000
(5)

2001-2005
(6)

Constant

4.953***

1.732

7.160***

7.783***

11.149***

10.637***

(2.96)

(1.15)

(12.04)

(14.13)

(144.80)

(17.37)

GDP per capita

2.201***

1.030***

1.881***

1.197***

2.014***

1.354***

(2.92)

(3.02)

(3.61)

(6.00)

(4.00)

(5.92)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.403*

0.960***

(1.93)

(4.94)

GDP growth

-2.392

3.377

(-0.79)

(0.88)

GDP growth Avg.

Unemployment

Unemployment Avg.

Inflation

-0.233**

-7.223***

-0.098

-1.086

(-2.12)

(-5.06)

(-1.01)

(-0.73)

Inflation Avg.

-0.364***

-7.316***

(-3.20)

(-4.97)

Gov Debt

-0.046***

-0.027***

-0.039***

-0.021*

-0.036***

-0.015

(-4.19)

(-3.99)

(-5.81)

(-1.85)

(-4.09)

(-0.78)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.008*

-0.010**

(-1.67)

(-2.24)

Gov Balance

0.852

6.226*

(0.22)

(1.84)

Gov Balance Avg.

12.422***

0.503

(3.26)

(0.12)

Gov Effectiveness

1.490***

-0.907**

0.714***

0.298

0.545**

0.294

(3.60)

(-2.09)

(3.26)

(1.04)

(2.15)

(1.15)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

1.958***

1.461***

2.628***

2.771***

(8.59)

(6.37)

(6.28)

(8.20)

External Debt

-0.001

-0.008***

-0.001

-0.008**

-0.001

-0.008*

(-0.28)

(-2.76)

(-0.23)

(-2.26)

(-0.22)

(-1.78)

External Debt Avg.

-0.008***

-0.012***

-0.010***

-0.014***

(-4.34)

(-5.35)

(-2.68)

(-3.51)

Current Account

Current Account Avg.

Reserves

Reserves Avg.

2.313***

2.225***

2.557**

2.696***

(3.42)

(4.16)

(2.40)

(3.45)

Def 1

-0.717**

-1.409**

-1.440***

-1.338**

-1.848**

-0.970

(-2.22)

(-5.32)

(-3.02)

(-2.36)

(-2.43)

(-0.97)

Def 2

EU

0.843***

0.959***

0.841*

0.579**

(2.92)

(4.45)

(1.67)

(2.34)

IND

2.953***

1.359***

2.883***

2.146***

(5.48)

(2.89)

(2.96)

(3.39)

LAC

-1.017***

-0.917***

(-3.84)

(-4.17)

R2

0.943

0.969

0.932

0.957

0.990

0.993

Countries

54

58

54

58

54

58

Observations

235

246

235

246

235

246

Hausman Test $________

6.95 (0.325)

11.25 (0.128)

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 8 and 7 degrees of freedom respectively (the variable EU (2) is time invariant in the
second sample). The p-value is in brackets.

41



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