Table 5 - Estimations for S&P
|
Pooled OLS |
Random Effects |
Fixed Effects | ||||
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) | |
|
Constant |
4.521*** |
3.749*** |
4.347 |
7.421*** |
10.301*** |
10.278*** |
|
(3.64) |
(3.78) |
(1.25) |
(15.11) |
(136.51) |
(240.18) | |
|
GDP per capita |
1.339*** |
1.430*** |
1.411*** |
1.403*** |
1.452*** |
1.918*** |
|
(4.65) |
(5.32) |
(7.12) |
(7.67) |
(7.14) |
(11.53) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.461*** |
0.530*** |
0.450 | |||
|
(2.90) |
(4.01) |
(1.05) | ||||
|
GDP growth |
5.715* |
7.568*** |
8.125*** |
8.256*** |
8.221*** |
6.896*** |
|
(1.95) |
(2.83) |
(3.50) |
(3.72) |
(3.37) |
(3.02) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. |
-5.358 |
-1.907 | ||||
|
(-1.45) |
(-0.20) | |||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.008 |
0.055** |
0.056*** |
0.062*** |
0.053*** | |
|
(-0.32) |
(2.53) |
(2.73) |
(2.63) |
(2.63) | ||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.024* |
-0.022* |
-0.018 | |||
|
(-1.90) |
(-1.81) |
(-0.45) | ||||
|
Inflation |
-0.586** |
-0.597** |
-0.235*** |
-0.229*** |
-0.219*** |
-0.235*** |
|
(-2.39) |
(-2.40) |
(-6.17) |
(-6.13) |
(-5.33) |
(-6.07) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-0.732*** |
-0.716*** |
-0.427*** |
-0.353** | ||
|
(-2.83) |
(-2.79) |
(-2.65) |
(-2.44) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.026*** |
-0.024*** |
-0.033*** |
-0.033*** |
-0.033*** |
-0.030*** |
|
(-4.78) |
(-4.67) |
(-6.61) |
(-7.22) |
(-5.92) |
(-6.62) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.011*** |
-0.009*** |
-0.010 |
-0.012** | ||
|
(-3.56) |
(-3.24) |
(-1.34) |
(-1.97) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
5.892* |
6.280** |
4.387** |
4.411** |
4.430** |
3.948* |
|
(1.81) |
(2.05) |
(1.97) |
(2.01) |
(2.01) |
(1.85) | |
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
7.026** |
6.639** |
5.144 | |||
|
(2.19) |
(2.12) |
(0.59) | ||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.385 |
0.370** |
0.362** |
0.371** |
0.717*** | |
|
(1.30) |
(2.36) |
(2.47) |
(2.33) |
(4.40) | ||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
2.287*** |
2.244*** |
2.370*** |
2.758*** | ||
|
(12.82) |
(14.26) |
(4.91) |
(7.75) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.004* |
-0.004* |
-0.003* |
-0.003 |
-0.003* | |
|
(-1.81) |
(-1.74) |
(-1.68) |
(-1.51) |
(-1.65) | ||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.007*** |
-0.007*** |
-0.006* |
-0.007** | ||
|
(-5.76) |
(-5.72) |
(-1.81) |
(-2.18) | |||
|
Current Account |
-6.338*** |
-6.183*** |
-3.700** |
-3.586** |
-3.476* | |
|
(-2.85) |
(-2.93) |
(-2.18) |
(-2.18) |
(-1.96) | ||
|
Current Account Avg. |
-0.439 |
0.123 | ||||
|
(-0.26) |
(0.03) | |||||
|
Reserves |
0.564 |
0.064 |
0.048 | |||
|
(1.16) |
(0.19) |
(0.13) | ||||
|
Reserves Avg. |
2.170*** |
2.117*** |
1.909** |
1.988** | ||
|
(5.31) |
(5.49) |
(2.06) |
(2.28) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-1.032*** |
-1.131*** |
-1.307*** |
-1.337*** |
-1.353*** |
-1.422*** |
|
(-3.62) |
(-5.84) |
(-5.23) |
(-6.74) |
(-5.48) |
(-6.58) | |
|
Def 2 |
-0.010 |
-0.018 |
-0.025 | |||
|
(-0.31) |
(-0.33) |
(-0.34) | ||||
|
EU (2) |
1.068*** |
1.008*** |
0.415** |
0.418** |
0.291 | |
|
(6.07) |
(6.02) |
(2.41) |
(2.48) |
(1.55) | ||
|
IND |
2.446*** |
2.387*** |
2.831*** |
3.438*** | ||
|
(8.24) |
(8.77) |
(3.03) |
(4.69) | |||
|
LAC |
-0.677*** |
-0.669*** |
-0.459 | |||
|
(-3.82) |
(-4.06) |
(-0.94) | ||||
|
R2 |
0.951 |
0.950 |
0.948 |
0.946 |
0.987 |
0.985 |
|
Countries |
65 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
74 |
|
Observations |
564 |
568 |
564 |
565 |
564 |
657 |
|
Hausman Test $________ |
16.77 (0.210) |
10.73 (0.467) | ||||
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 13 and 11 degrees of freedom respectively (the number of time-varying regressors).
The p-value is in brackets.
37
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