The name is absent



Table 4 - Estimations for Moody’s

Pooled OLS                Random Effects                Fixed Effects

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Constant

3.618***

3.934***

3.431

8.291

10.064***

9.952

(2.85)

(3.22)

(0.95)

(12.49)

(99.36)

(143.93)

GDP per capita

1.686***

1.607***

1.779***

1.789***

1.800***

1.876

(5.07)

(4.91)

(7.61)

(8.03)

(7.53)

(9.61)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.664***

0.631***

0.650

(4.11)

(3.92)

(1.46)

GDP growth

7.431***

9.044***

8.643***

8.768***

8.971***

5.909

(2.04)

(2.76)

(3.07)

(3.26)

(3.14)

(2.44)

GDP growth Avg.

0.527

5.237

(0.12)

(0.46)

Unemployment

-0.044

-0.069**

0.014

0.024

(-1.43)

(-2.34)

(0.52)

(0.87)

Unemployment Avg.

-0.049***

-0.051***

-0.072*

-0.073*

(-3.68)

(-3.67)

(-1.78)

(-1.70)

Inflation

-0.452***

-0.497***

-0.124*

-0.145**

-0.105**

-0.136

(-2.64)

(-2.95)

(-1.79)

(-2.11)

(-2.01)

(-2.66)

Inflation Avg.

-0.648***

-0.712****

-0.360*

-0.347**

(-3.55)

(-4.05)

(-1.84)

(-2.00)

Gov Debt

-0.008

-0.014**

-0.014**

-0.014**

-0.016***

-0.015

(-1.21)

(-2.40)

(-2.38)

(-2.53)

(-2.65)

(-3.54)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.013***

-0.016***

-0.011

-0.014**

(-4.12)

(-4.81)

(-1.49)

(-2.24)

Gov Balance

6.995*

7.740***

6.991***

7.598***

6.056

(1.94)

(2.77)

(2.54)

(2.58)

(2.99)

Gov Balance Avg.

6.311*

6.122*

7.893

(1.80)

(1.67)

(0.80)

Gov Effectiveness

0.277

0.242

0.205

0.542

(0.88)

(1.18)

(0.98)

(2.90)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

1.927***

1.756***

1.906***

2.470***

(10.89)

(9.78)

(4.06)

(6.80)

External Debt

-0.010***

-0.009***

-0.004*

-0.004*

-0.003

(-5.84)

(-5.60)

(-1.79)

(-1.95)

(-1.27)

External Debt Avg.

-0.007***

-0.006***

-0.004**

-0.004**

(-6.54)

(-5.82)

(-2.20)

(-2.47)

Current Account

-8.334***

-8.881***

-7.246***

-8.760***

-7.074***

-2.605

(-3.84)

(-4.27)

(-3.67)

(-4.84)

(-3.37)

(-1.96)

Current Account Avg.

-1.320

-3.321

(-0.77)

(-0.78)

Reserves

1.689***

1.891***

1.423**

1.710***

1.488***

1.132

(3.02)

(3.52)

(3.63)

(4.61)

(3.84)

(3.56)

Reserves Avg.

1.758***

1.788***

1.475

1.254

(3.85)

(4.03)

(1.60)

(1.43)

Def 1

-1.667***

-1.671***

-1.998***

-2.075***

-2.109***

-2.244

(-6.19)

(-6.72)

(-6.87)

(-8.11)

(-6.77)

(-7.71)

Def 2

0.065***

0.089***

-0.015

-0.049

(2.67)

(3.88)

(-0.32)

(-0.76)

EU (2)

1.220***

1.273***

1.598***

1.650***

1.704***

1.376

(6.97)

(7.22)

(6.63)

(6.69)

(6.84)

(6.51)

IND

2.176***

2.653***

2.289***

3.157***

(6.08)

(7.57)

(2.89)

(4.61)

LAC

-1.072***

-1.282***

-0.903*

(-5.44)

(-6.39)

(-1.93)

R2

0.950

0.948

0.945

0.940

0.984

0.980

Countries

66

66

66

66

66

78

Observations

551

557

551

557

551

699

Hausman Test$_________

21.93 (0.06)

14.30 (0.160)

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically significant at
the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test statistic is to be
compared to a Qui-Square with 13 and 10 degrees of freedom respectively (the number of time-varying regressors). The p-value is in
brackets.

36



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