Table 4 - Estimations for Moody’s
Pooled OLS Random Effects Fixed Effects
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) | |
|
Constant |
3.618*** |
3.934*** |
3.431 |
8.291 |
10.064*** |
9.952 |
|
(2.85) |
(3.22) |
(0.95) |
(12.49) |
(99.36) |
(143.93) | |
|
GDP per capita |
1.686*** |
1.607*** |
1.779*** |
1.789*** |
1.800*** |
1.876 |
|
(5.07) |
(4.91) |
(7.61) |
(8.03) |
(7.53) |
(9.61) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.664*** |
0.631*** |
0.650 | |||
|
(4.11) |
(3.92) |
(1.46) | ||||
|
GDP growth |
7.431*** |
9.044*** |
8.643*** |
8.768*** |
8.971*** |
5.909 |
|
(2.04) |
(2.76) |
(3.07) |
(3.26) |
(3.14) |
(2.44) | |
|
GDP growth Avg. |
0.527 |
5.237 | ||||
|
(0.12) |
(0.46) | |||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.044 |
-0.069** |
0.014 |
0.024 | ||
|
(-1.43) |
(-2.34) |
(0.52) |
(0.87) | |||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.049*** |
-0.051*** |
-0.072* |
-0.073* | ||
|
(-3.68) |
(-3.67) |
(-1.78) |
(-1.70) | |||
|
Inflation |
-0.452*** |
-0.497*** |
-0.124* |
-0.145** |
-0.105** |
-0.136 |
|
(-2.64) |
(-2.95) |
(-1.79) |
(-2.11) |
(-2.01) |
(-2.66) | |
|
Inflation Avg. |
-0.648*** |
-0.712**** |
-0.360* |
-0.347** | ||
|
(-3.55) |
(-4.05) |
(-1.84) |
(-2.00) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.008 |
-0.014** |
-0.014** |
-0.014** |
-0.016*** |
-0.015 |
|
(-1.21) |
(-2.40) |
(-2.38) |
(-2.53) |
(-2.65) |
(-3.54) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.013*** |
-0.016*** |
-0.011 |
-0.014** | ||
|
(-4.12) |
(-4.81) |
(-1.49) |
(-2.24) | |||
|
Gov Balance |
6.995* |
7.740*** |
6.991*** |
7.598*** |
6.056 | |
|
(1.94) |
(2.77) |
(2.54) |
(2.58) |
(2.99) | ||
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
6.311* |
6.122* |
7.893 | |||
|
(1.80) |
(1.67) |
(0.80) | ||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.277 |
0.242 |
0.205 |
0.542 | ||
|
(0.88) |
(1.18) |
(0.98) |
(2.90) | |||
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
1.927*** |
1.756*** |
1.906*** |
2.470*** | ||
|
(10.89) |
(9.78) |
(4.06) |
(6.80) | |||
|
External Debt |
-0.010*** |
-0.009*** |
-0.004* |
-0.004* |
-0.003 | |
|
(-5.84) |
(-5.60) |
(-1.79) |
(-1.95) |
(-1.27) | ||
|
External Debt Avg. |
-0.007*** |
-0.006*** |
-0.004** |
-0.004** | ||
|
(-6.54) |
(-5.82) |
(-2.20) |
(-2.47) | |||
|
Current Account |
-8.334*** |
-8.881*** |
-7.246*** |
-8.760*** |
-7.074*** |
-2.605 |
|
(-3.84) |
(-4.27) |
(-3.67) |
(-4.84) |
(-3.37) |
(-1.96) | |
|
Current Account Avg. |
-1.320 |
-3.321 | ||||
|
(-0.77) |
(-0.78) | |||||
|
Reserves |
1.689*** |
1.891*** |
1.423** |
1.710*** |
1.488*** |
1.132 |
|
(3.02) |
(3.52) |
(3.63) |
(4.61) |
(3.84) |
(3.56) | |
|
Reserves Avg. |
1.758*** |
1.788*** |
1.475 |
1.254 | ||
|
(3.85) |
(4.03) |
(1.60) |
(1.43) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-1.667*** |
-1.671*** |
-1.998*** |
-2.075*** |
-2.109*** |
-2.244 |
|
(-6.19) |
(-6.72) |
(-6.87) |
(-8.11) |
(-6.77) |
(-7.71) | |
|
Def 2 |
0.065*** |
0.089*** |
-0.015 |
-0.049 | ||
|
(2.67) |
(3.88) |
(-0.32) |
(-0.76) | |||
|
EU (2) |
1.220*** |
1.273*** |
1.598*** |
1.650*** |
1.704*** |
1.376 |
|
(6.97) |
(7.22) |
(6.63) |
(6.69) |
(6.84) |
(6.51) | |
|
IND |
2.176*** |
2.653*** |
2.289*** |
3.157*** | ||
|
(6.08) |
(7.57) |
(2.89) |
(4.61) | |||
|
LAC |
-1.072*** |
-1.282*** |
-0.903* | |||
|
(-5.44) |
(-6.39) |
(-1.93) | ||||
|
R2 |
0.950 |
0.948 |
0.945 |
0.940 |
0.984 |
0.980 |
|
Countries |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
66 |
78 |
|
Observations |
551 |
557 |
551 |
557 |
551 |
699 |
|
Hausman Test$_________ |
21.93 (0.06) |
14.30 (0.160) |
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically significant at
the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test statistic is to be
compared to a Qui-Square with 13 and 10 degrees of freedom respectively (the number of time-varying regressors). The p-value is in
brackets.
36