Table A.1
Regressions of Changes in Absolute Yield Spreads of SCM Long-Term
Corporate Bond Indices on Changes in the Yield of the Constant Maturity Long-
Term Government of Canada Index and the Return on the Toronto Stock
Exchange 300 Index - AR-GARCH Estimation
Table A.1 reports the results of the AR-GARCH estimation of regression model (1) in
which the dependent variable is the monthly change in the absolute yield spread. This
regression model is of the following form:
∆ 5, = a + b ∆ Y + cI + ε, .
where ∆.S' is the monthly change in the absolute yield spread, ∆Y is the monthly:
change in the yield of the constant maturity, long-term Government of Canada index,
and I is the monthly return on the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 index. t-values are in
parentheses, m gives the degree of the autoregressive process as determined by the:
stepwise autoregression method, p and q are the GARCH(p,q) parameters, Norm. Test
gives the p-value for the normality test for detecting misspecification of the GARCH
model, and finally LM gives the p-value for the Lagrange multiplier test. Panel A:
reports the estimates for the entire sample, covering the 08:1976-07:2001 25-year
period. Data during this sample period are dominated by corporate bonds carrying a:
standard call provision. Panel B outlines the results for the 01:1995-07:2001 sub-
period, in which bonds carrying the doomsday call are expected to dominate all
indices.
____________________________Panel A: 09:1976-07:2001_________________________ | |||||||||
__________Regression Coefficients |
AR and GARCH Parameters_______________ | ||||||||
Index |
a |
b |
c______ |
m |
p_ |
ɪ |
Norm. Test |
R2 |
LM |
AAA |
0.0007 |
-0.0563 (-3.27) |
-0.0302 (-0.20) |
1, 2 |
1 |
1 |
<0.0001 |
0.19 |
0.0004 |
AA |
0.0006 |
-0.1428 (-9.67) |
-0.4287 (-4.02) |
1, 2, 4 |
1 |
1 |
<0.0001 |
0.18 |
0.0006 |
A |
0.0003 |
-0.1346 (-8.88) |
-0.5162 (-4.26) |
1, 2 |
1 |
1 |
<0.0001 |
0.19 |
<0.0001 |
BBB |
0.0098 |
-0.1641 (-4.37) |
-1.2119 (-3.76) |
1, 2 |
- |
- |
- |
0.12 |
- |
Panel B |
: 01:1995-07:2001__________ | ||||||||
Regression Coefficients |
AR and GARCH Parameters |
Goodness of Fit | |||||||
Index |
a |
b |
c______ |
m |
_p_ |
ɪ |
Norm. Test |
R2 |
LM |
AAA |
N/A |
AA |
-0.0041 (-0.27) |
-0.2106 (-3.12) |
-0.6623 (-2.26) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.14 |
- |
A |
0.0015 |
-0.1927 (-3.02) |
-0.6160 (-2.22) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.13 |
- |
BBB |
0.0026 |
0.0578 |
-1.3416 (-3.26) |
3 |
- |
- |
- |
0.17 |
- |
44