102
verification be interpreted, again, as evidence that resources in hands of legislators do
not let them aspire to relevant spots? Or should we think more on the concomitant
increase in the competition for big municipalities' races, which demand more money,
pork, advertisements and supporters? A combination of both might be a reasonable
argument, which, in any case, deserves deeper future studies.
Figure 7.2: Predicted Probability of Municipal Victory - By Share of
Provincial Population
Finally, and not surprisingly, hypothesis 8.5 is also verified in this model. As
seen in the static distribution, former mayors are highly unlikely to recover their past
positions when they attempt to do it from the House. In this case, even though former
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