QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $    ),1/$1'


,QFUHDVH rI    Lq

0RQH\

7DUJHW

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.64

0.42

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.14

0.10

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.59

0.30

0.

PRIV.INV %

1.40

0.88

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.49

0.51

0.

EXPORTS %

0.74

0.45

0.

IMPORTS %

0.74

0.40

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.14

0.07

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.33

0.50

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.31

0.54

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.38

0.64

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.54

0.75

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

0.01

0.00

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.22

0.21

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

0.10

0.12

0.

MONEY %

1.01

0.99

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.23

0.17

0.

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.01

-0.01

-0.

INFLATION

0.31

0.23

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.12

-0.06

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.13

0.01

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.49

0.04

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.02

0.00

0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.57

0.23

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.15

0.10

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.27

-0.62

-0.

PRIV.INV %

1.15

0.02

-0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

5.12

5.04

4.

EXPORTS %

-0.06

-0.17

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.57

1.17

1.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.15

0.09

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.22

0.27

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.28

0.38

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.20

0.27

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.28

-0.38

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.28

-0.38

-0.

MONEY %

0.82

0.53

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.14

-0.05

-0.

INFLATION

0.28

0.10

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.13

-0.08

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

0.15

1.37

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.99

1.14

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.47

-0.38

-0.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.18

0.12

0.08

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.13

0.10

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.21

0.04

-0.05

-0.09

-0.11

-0.12

-0.12

0.25

0.19

0.15

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.07

0.23

0.18

0.15

0.13

0.12

0.11

0.10

0.12

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

0.21

0.15

0.10

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.80

0.86

0.90

0.93

0.94

0.96

0.97

0.92

0.99

1.03

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

0.96

1.01

1.03

1.04

1.04

1.04

1.04

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.17

0.15

0.13

0.11

0.10

0.08

0.07

0.12

0.11

0.10

0.09

0.08

0.07

0.06

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.06

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.10

0.06

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.05

0.02

0.00

-0.02

-0.05

-0.09

-0.14

0.04

0.02

0.00

-0.02

-0.06

-0.09

-0.14

-0.66

-0.64

-0.61

-0.59

-0.58

-0.57

-0.57

-0.64

-0.77

-0.98

-1.25

-1.56

-1.93

-2.36

5.02

5.10

5.08

5.04

4.98

4.93

4.84

-0.21

-0.22

-0.22

-0.22

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

1.02

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.83

0.75

0.65

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.00

-0.03

-0.05

-0.08

-0.12

-0.20

0.44

0.45

0.45

0.45

0.45

0.45

0.45

0.30

0.30

0.30

0.30

0.31

0.31

0.31

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.44

-0.44

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

-0.43

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

0.40

0.38

0.36

0.34

0.31

0.28

0.23

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

3.60

4.66

5.81

6.94

8.08

9.23

10.40

1.19

1.21

1.23

1.26

1.29

1.32

1.35

-0.35

-0.35

-0.34

-0.31

-0.29

-0.26

-0.22


Note: see Table A.1.


50




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