QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ ),1/$1'

,QFUHDVH rI Lq	0RQH\	7DUJHW
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.64	0.42	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.10	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.59	0.30	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.40	0.88	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.49	0.51	0.
EXPORTS %	0.74	0.45	0.
IMPORTS %	0.74	0.40	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.14	0.07	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.33	0.50	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.31	0.54	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.38	0.64	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.54	0.75	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.01	0.00	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.22	0.21	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.10	0.12	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.23	0.17	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
INFLATION	0.31	0.23	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.12	-0.06	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.13	0.01	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.49	0.04	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.02	0.00	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.57	0.23	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.15	0.10	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.27	-0.62	-0.
PRIV.INV %	1.15	0.02	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	5.12	5.04	4.
EXPORTS %	-0.06	-0.17	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.57	1.17	1.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.15	0.09	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.22	0.27	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.28	0.38	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.20	0.27	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.28	-0.38	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.28	-0.38	-0.
MONEY %	0.82	0.53	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.14	-0.05	-0.
INFLATION	0.28	0.10	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.13	-0.08	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.15	1.37	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.99	1.14	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.47	-0.38	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.18	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01
0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01
0.13	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
0.21	0.04	-0.05	-0.09	-0.11	-0.12	-0.12
0.25	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.08	0.07
0.23	0.18	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.11	0.10
0.12	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.21	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03
0.80	0.86	0.90	0.93	0.94	0.96	0.97
0.92	0.99	1.03	1.05	1.06	1.07	1.08
0.96	1.01	1.03	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04
0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.17	0.15	0.13	0.11	0.10	0.08	0.07
0.12	0.11	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.06	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.10	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.05	-0.09	-0.14
0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.06	-0.09	-0.14
-0.66	-0.64	-0.61	-0.59	-0.58	-0.57	-0.57
-0.64	-0.77	-0.98	-1.25	-1.56	-1.93	-2.36
5.02	5.10	5.08	5.04	4.98	4.93	4.84
-0.21	-0.22	-0.22	-0.22	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23
1.02	1.00	0.95	0.90	0.83	0.75	0.65
0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.05	-0.08	-0.12	-0.20
0.44	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45
0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.31	0.31	0.31
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.44	-0.44	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45	-0.45
-0.43	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44
0.40	0.38	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.28	0.23
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03
3.60	4.66	5.81	6.94	8.08	9.23	10.40
1.19	1.21	1.23	1.26	1.29	1.32	1.35
-0.35	-0.35	-0.34	-0.31	-0.29	-0.26	-0.22

Note: see Table A.1.

50

More intriguing information

1. Reversal of Fortune: Macroeconomic Policy, International Finance, and Banking in Japan
2. The name is absent
3. DIVERSITY OF RURAL PLACES - TEXAS
4. PRIORITIES IN THE CHANGING WORLD OF AGRICULTURE
5. Public infrastructure capital, scale economies and returns to variety
6. Understanding the (relative) fall and rise of construction wages
7. Design and investigation of scalable multicast recursive protocols for wired and wireless ad hoc networks
8. The name is absent
9. The name is absent
10. The name is absent
11. The Effects of Reforming the Chinese Dual-Track Price System
12. The name is absent
13. The name is absent
14. Income Taxation when Markets are Incomplete
15. The name is absent
16. IMMIGRATION AND AGRICULTURAL LABOR POLICIES
17. Do Decision Makers' Debt-risk Attitudes Affect the Agency Costs of Debt?
18. Poverty transition through targeted programme: the case of Bangladesh Poultry Model
19. Initial Public Offerings and Venture Capital in Germany
20. Regional differentiation in the Russian federation: A cluster-based typification