QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $     6:('(1


,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW


Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.60

0.36

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.14

0.08

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.61

0.22

0.

PRIV.INV %

1.26

0.81

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.42

0.43

0.

EXPORTS %

0.76

0.45

0.

IMPORTS %

0.75

0.37

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.14

0.05

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.30

0.45

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.38

0.63

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.39

0.67

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.50

0.74

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

-0.03

-0.01

-0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.12

0.11

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.03

0.01

0.

MONEY %

1.01

0.99

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.31

0.18

0.

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.05

-0.01

-0.

INFLATION

0.38

0.24

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.13

-0.05

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.15

0.03

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.64

0.03

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

0.00

0.02

0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.47

0.18

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.13

0.08

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.20

-0.51

-0.

PRIV.INV %

1.09

0.00

-0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

4.19

4.11

4.

EXPORTS %

-0.06

-0.20

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.59

1.27

1.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.13

0.07

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.18

0.22

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.30

0.40

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL

%

0.18

0.24

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE

%

0.00

0.00

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.30

-0.40

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE

%

-0.29

-0.39

-0.

MONEY %

0.74

0.52

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.13

-0.05

-0.

INFLATION

0.30

0.10

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.12

-0.06

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

0.10

1.34

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

1.01

1.14

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

Note: see Table A.

1.

-0.55

-0.47

-0.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.12

0.07

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.07

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.12

-0.03

-0.09

-0.11

-0.12

-0.12

-0.11

0.16

0.11

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.20

0.15

0.12

0.10

0.09

0.08

0.08

0.13

0.09

0.07

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.14

0.09

0.06

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.87

0.91

0.94

0.96

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.93

0.98

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.03

1.04

0.93

0.97

0.98

0.99

0.99

0.99

0.99

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.09

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

-0.01

-0.03

-0.06

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

-0.02

-0.05

-0.55

-0.52

-0.50

-0.48

-0.47

-0.46

-0.46

-0.46

-0.48

-0.65

-0.89

-1.19

-1.54

-1.95

4.03

4.09

4.08

4.04

4.00

3.95

3.88

-0.24

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

-0.24

1.16

1.17

1.14

1.10

1.05

0.98

0.91

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.11

0.43

0.43

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.25

0.24

0.23

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.24

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.43

-0.42

-0.42

-0.41

-0.41

-0.42

-0.42

-0.42

-0.41

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

0.39

0.37

0.36

0.36

0.34

0.32

0.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

3.66

4.80

5.97

7.13

8.29

9.47

10.67

1.21

1.24

1.27

1.31

1.34

1.38

1.41

-0.47

-0.49

-0.48

-0.46

-0.43

-0.41

-0.37


49




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