QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ 6:('(1

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Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.60	0.36	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.08	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.61	0.22	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.26	0.81	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.42	0.43	0.
EXPORTS %	0.76	0.45	0.
IMPORTS %	0.75	0.37	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.14	0.05	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.30	0.45	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.38	0.63	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.39	0.67	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.50	0.74	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	-0.03	-0.01	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.12	0.11	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.03	0.01	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.31	0.18	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	0.05	-0.01	-0.
INFLATION	0.38	0.24	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.13	-0.05	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.15	0.03	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.64	0.03	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	0.00	0.02	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW			3XUFKDVHV
Year:		1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %		0.47	0.18	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %		0.13	0.08	0.
PRIV.CONS %		-0.20	-0.51	-0.
PRIV.INV %		1.09	0.00	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %		4.19	4.11	4.
EXPORTS %		-0.06	-0.20	-0.
IMPORTS %		1.59	1.27	1.
EMPLOYMENT %		0.13	0.07	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %		0.18	0.22	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %		0.30	0.40	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL	%	0.18	0.24	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE	%	0.00	0.00	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %		0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %		-0.30	-0.40	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE	%	-0.29	-0.39	-0.
MONEY %		0.74	0.52	0.
SHORT.RATE		0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE		0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE		-0.13	-0.05	-0.
INFLATION		0.30	0.10	0.
UNEMPL.RATE		-0.12	-0.06	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP		0.10	1.34	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP		1.01	1.14	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.	1.	-0.55	-0.47	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.12	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
0.09	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.03
0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.11	-0.12	-0.12	-0.11
0.16	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04
0.20	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.08
0.13	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.14	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
0.87	0.91	0.94	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.98
0.93	0.98	1.01	1.02	1.03	1.03	1.04
0.93	0.97	0.98	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.09	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.06
0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.05
-0.55	-0.52	-0.50	-0.48	-0.47	-0.46	-0.46
-0.46	-0.48	-0.65	-0.89	-1.19	-1.54	-1.95
4.03	4.09	4.08	4.04	4.00	3.95	3.88
-0.24	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.24
1.16	1.17	1.14	1.10	1.05	0.98	0.91
0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.06	-0.11
0.43	0.43	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.42
0.25	0.24	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.24
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.43	-0.42	-0.42	-0.41	-0.41	-0.42	-0.42
-0.42	-0.41	-0.40	-0.40	-0.40	-0.40	-0.40
0.39	0.37	0.36	0.36	0.34	0.32	0.30
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
0.00	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
3.66	4.80	5.97	7.13	8.29	9.47	10.67
1.21	1.24	1.27	1.31	1.34	1.38	1.41
-0.47	-0.49	-0.48	-0.46	-0.43	-0.41	-0.37

49

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