QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $    *5((&(


,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW


Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.51

0.26

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.14

0.10

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.44

0.12

0.

PRIV.INV %

1.28

0.71

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.30

0.29

0.

EXPORTS %

0.36

0.17

0.

IMPORTS %

0.63

0.26

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.16

0.08

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.17

0.31

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.50

0.74

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.51

0.75

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.66

0.86

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

0.14

0.11

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.16

0.11

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

0.01

0.01

0.

MONEY %

1.01

1.00

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.31

0.12

0.

LONG.RATE

0.03

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.04

-0.03

-0.

INFLATION

0.52

0.25

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.14

-0.07

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.11

0.03

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.92

-0.01

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.10

-0.03

-0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.55

0.15

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.18

0.11

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.07

-0.33

-0.

PRIV.INV %

0.60

-0.66

-0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

6.48

6.30

6.

EXPORTS %

-0.17

-0.20

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.37

1.00

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.21

0.12

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.09

0.18

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.55

0.63

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.35

0.41

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.55

-0.63

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.54

-0.63

-0.

MONEY %

1.08

0.74

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.15

-0.01

0.

INFLATION

0.58

0.09

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.19

-0.11

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.34

1.05

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.99

1.10

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

Note: see Table A.1.

-0.33

-0.25

-0.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.08

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.14

0.05

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.06

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.06

0.03

0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.09

0.06

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.92

0.95

0.96

0.96

0.97

0.97

0.97

0.92

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.98

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.02

1.02

1.02

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.06

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.00

-0.03

-0.05

-0.08

-0.12

-0.15

-0.20

0.02

-0.01

-0.03

-0.06

-0.09

-0.13

-0.17

-0.40

-0.40

-0.41

-0.41

-0.42

-0.42

-0.44

-1.08

-1.16

-1.34

-1.55

-1.78

-2.04

-2.32

6.17

6.22

6.21

6.17

6.13

6.08

6.01

-0.20

-0.19

-0.18

-0.17

-0.16

-0.15

-0.14

0.81

0.75

0.68

0.60

0.52

0.42

0.32

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

-0.03

-0.06

-0.09

-0.11

-0.15

-0.18

-0.26

0.61

0.59

0.56

0.53

0.50

0.47

0.44

0.39

0.37

0.35

0.33

0.32

0.30

0.28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.61

-0.59

-0.56

-0.53

-0.50

-0.47

-0.43

-0.61

-0.58

-0.55

-0.52

-0.49

-0.46

-0.43

0.56

0.51

0.46

0.40

0.34

0.27

0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.04

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

3.35

4.47

5.69

6.92

8.17

9.45

10.76

1.23

1.24

1.28

1.33

1.38

1.43

1.48

-0.21

-0.20

-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.09


47




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