QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ *5((&(

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.51	0.26	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.10	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.44	0.12	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.28	0.71	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.30	0.29	0.
EXPORTS %	0.36	0.17	0.
IMPORTS %	0.63	0.26	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.16	0.08	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.17	0.31	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.50	0.74	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.51	0.75	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.66	0.86	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.14	0.11	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.16	0.11	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.01	0.01	0.
MONEY %	1.01	1.00	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.31	0.12	0.
LONG.RATE	0.03	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	0.04	-0.03	-0.
INFLATION	0.52	0.25	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.14	-0.07	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.11	0.03	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.92	-0.01	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.10	-0.03	-0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.55	0.15	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.18	0.11	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.07	-0.33	-0.
PRIV.INV %	0.60	-0.66	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	6.48	6.30	6.
EXPORTS %	-0.17	-0.20	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.37	1.00	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.21	0.12	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.09	0.18	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.55	0.63	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.35	0.41	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.55	-0.63	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.54	-0.63	-0.
MONEY %	1.08	0.74	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.15	-0.01	0.
INFLATION	0.58	0.09	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.19	-0.11	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.34	1.05	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.99	1.10	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.1.	-0.33	-0.25	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.08	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
0.14	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.09	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03
0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03
0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02
0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.09	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.92	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97
0.92	0.95	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98
0.99	1.00	1.01	1.02	1.02	1.02	1.02
0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04
0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.06	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.00	-0.03	-0.05	-0.08	-0.12	-0.15	-0.20
0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.06	-0.09	-0.13	-0.17
-0.40	-0.40	-0.41	-0.41	-0.42	-0.42	-0.44
-1.08	-1.16	-1.34	-1.55	-1.78	-2.04	-2.32
6.17	6.22	6.21	6.17	6.13	6.08	6.01
-0.20	-0.19	-0.18	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-0.14
0.81	0.75	0.68	0.60	0.52	0.42	0.32
0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03
-0.03	-0.06	-0.09	-0.11	-0.15	-0.18	-0.26
0.61	0.59	0.56	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.44
0.39	0.37	0.35	0.33	0.32	0.30	0.28
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.61	-0.59	-0.56	-0.53	-0.50	-0.47	-0.43
-0.61	-0.58	-0.55	-0.52	-0.49	-0.46	-0.43
0.56	0.51	0.46	0.40	0.34	0.27	0.19
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04
-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
3.35	4.47	5.69	6.92	8.17	9.45	10.76
1.23	1.24	1.28	1.33	1.38	1.43	1.48
-0.21	-0.20	-0.18	-0.16	-0.14	-0.12	-0.09

47

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