QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $    ,5(/$1'


,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW


Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.59

0.35

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.19

0.16

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.57

0.26

0.

PRIV.INV %

1.63

0.73

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.27

0.30

0.

EXPORTS %

0.82

0.49

0.

IMPORTS %

0.90

0.47

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.20

0.14

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.17

0.34

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.43

0.66

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.27

0.56

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.42

0.66

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

-0.11

-0.09

-0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.01

0.00

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.20

-0.11

-0.

MONEY %

1.00

1.00

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.35

0.19

0.

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.10

0.04

0.

INFLATION

0.43

0.23

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.18

-0.13

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.11

0.02

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.57

0.02

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

0.00

0.04

0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.06

0.01

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.03

0.02

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.33

-0.54

-0.

PRIV.INV %

-0.01

-0.04

-0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

6.92

7.05

7.

EXPORTS %

-0.04

-0.06

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.20

1.05

1.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.03

0.02

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.00

0.00

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.05

0.04

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.01

0.01

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.05

-0.04

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.04

-0.03

-0.

MONEY %

0.08

0.01

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.01

0.01

0.

INFLATION

0.05

-0.01

-0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.03

-0.02

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

0.58

1.63

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

1.05

1.10

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.76

-0.69

-0.

Note: see Table A.1.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.14

0.10

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.09

0.07

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.16

0.15

0.13

0.12

0.11

0.10

0.09

0.16

0.08

0.03

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.12

0.09

0.07

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.17

0.11

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.19

0.14

0.11

0.10

0.09

0.08

0.08

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.14

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.85

0.89

0.91

0.93

0.94

0.94

0.95

0.81

0.85

0.88

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.87

0.90

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.94

0.94

-0.09

-0.09

-0.08

-0.08

-0.07

-0.07

-0.06

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.05

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

-0.04

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.52

-0.50

-0.48

-0.47

-0.45

-0.44

-0.43

-0.03

-0.01

-0.01

-0.04

-0.06

-0.10

-0.14

7.21

7.27

7.25

7.20

7.15

7.10

7.04

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.04

-0.05

-0.06

-0.07

1.07

1.09

1.10

1.09

1.09

1.08

1.07

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

0.02

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.04

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.01

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

3.62

4.56

5.62

6.70

7.78

8.87

9.97

1.14

1.15

1.17

1.20

1.23

1.26

1.29

-0.72

-0.74

-0.75

-0.75

-0.74

-0.74

-0.74


45




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