QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ %(/*,80

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.61	0.37	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.10	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.76	0.17	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.54	0.72	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.33	0.41	0.
EXPORTS %	0.82	0.53	0.
IMPORTS %	0.95	0.39	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.15	0.08	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.26	0.43	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.37	0.63	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.31	0.61	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.44	0.69	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	-0.08	-0.06	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.07	0.06	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.08	-0.04	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.25	0.19	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.03	0.01	0.
INFLATION	0.37	0.25	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.13	-0.07	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.27	0.05	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.12	0.06	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.11	0.11	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	-0.03	-0.03	-0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.31	-0.48	-0.
PRIV.INV %	-0.22	-0.21	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	7.09	7.18	7.
EXPORTS %	0.02	0.04	0.
IMPORTS %	0.91	0.80	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	-0.01	-0.02	-0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	-0.01	-0.03	-0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.00	0.01	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	-0.02	-0.02	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.01	0.01	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.02	0.03	0.
MONEY %	-0.07	-0.09	-0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
INFLATION	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
UNEMPL.RATE	0.01	0.01	0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.69	1.74	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.05	1.09	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.1.	-0.77	-0.68	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.13	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	-0.04
0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.04	-0.05	-0.06
0.00	-0.03	-0.04	-0.05	-0.06	-0.06	-0.07
-0.14	-0.37	-0.45	-0.44	-0.41	-0.37	-0.32
0.18	0.13	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02
0.31	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.25	0.24	0.22
0.19	0.18	0.19	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.21
0.00	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
0.16	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01
0.87	0.93	0.96	0.99	1.00	1.02	1.03
0.96	1.06	1.12	1.15	1.16	1.17	1.18
0.96	1.03	1.08	1.10	1.11	1.12	1.12
0.01	0.04	0.07	0.09	0.10	0.11	0.12
0.09	0.11	0.12	0.11	0.11	0.10	0.09
0.04	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.08	0.08
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.09	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
0.00	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.11	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
-0.04	-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.05
-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05
-0.48	-0.48	-0.47	-0.46	-0.44	-0.43	-0.42
-0.25	-0.28	-0.25	-0.19	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05
7.39	7.48	7.48	7.43	7.38	7.33	7.29
0.08	0.11	0.13	0.12	0.11	0.10	0.09
0.82	0.83	0.86	0.88	0.88	0.89	0.90
-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
-0.05	-0.07	-0.08	-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.06
0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.03	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04
0.06	0.08	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.07
-0.13	-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.14	-0.14	-0.14
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
3.84	4.90	5.97	7.01	8.06	9.12	10.18
1.13	1.15	1.17	1.20	1.23	1.26	1.29
-0.72	-0.74	-0.75	-0.76	-0.77	-0.78	-0.79

43

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