QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ 8.

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.59	0.36	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.15	0.14	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.42	0.22	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.95	0.99	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.50	0.41	0.
EXPORTS %	0.52	0.31	0.
IMPORTS %	0.62	0.29	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.17	0.13	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.20	0.35	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.38	0.62	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.47	0.69	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.68	0.83	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.30	0.22	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.18	0.13	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.14	0.13	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.14	-0.03	-0.
INFLATION	0.38	0.24	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.16	-0.12	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.13	0.00	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.44	0.02	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.08	-0.02	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.61	0.23	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.18	0.14	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.14	-0.39	-0.
PRIV.INV %	1.27	-0.19	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	5.17	5.02	4.
EXPORTS %	-0.06	-0.21	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.44	1.11	1.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.21	0.16	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.12	0.20	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.41	0.52	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.30	0.37	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.04	0.04	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.37	-0.48	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.35	-0.45	-0.
MONEY %	1.00	0.70	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.17	-0.04	-0.
INFLATION	0.41	0.11	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.20	-0.15	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.07	1.25	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.91	1.10	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.42	-0.36	-0.
Note: see Table A.1.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.15	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03
0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
0.10	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
0.23	0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.07	-0.08	-0.08
0.21	0.16	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.07
0.16	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.07
0.09	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01
0.16	0.11	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04
0.83	0.88	0.91	0.93	0.94	0.95	0.96
0.91	0.95	0.98	1.00	1.01	1.02	1.02
0.98	1.01	1.02	1.02	1.02	1.02	1.02
0.15	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06
0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.05
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	-0.08	-0.12	-0.18
0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.07	-0.11	-0.16
-0.46	-0.46	-0.46	-0.47	-0.48	-0.49	-0.50
-0.86	-1.01	-1.27	-1.60	-1.98	-2.43	-2.94
4.94	4.97	4.95	4.90	4.85	4.79	4.71
-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.24	-0.24
0.94	0.90	0.84	0.77	0.69	0.60	0.49
0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.07	-0.10	-0.14	-0.22
0.55	0.54	0.54	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.50
0.38	0.37	0.37	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.35
0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05
-0.50	-0.50	-0.49	-0.48	-0.47	-0.47	-0.45
-0.48	-0.47	-0.47	-0.46	-0.45	-0.45	-0.44
0.54	0.50	0.46	0.43	0.38	0.33	0.26
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02
3.51	4.65	5.85	7.05	8.28	9.53	10.81
1.20	1.25	1.30	1.35	1.40	1.45	1.49
-0.34	-0.34	-0.32	-0.29	-0.26	-0.23	-0.19

40

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