QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $    ,7$/<


,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW


Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.60

0.33

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.14

0.06

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.64

0.19

0.

PRIV.INV %

1.19

0.87

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.44

0.43

0.

EXPORTS %

0.63

0.38

0.

IMPORTS %

0.73

0.29

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.15

0.04

-0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.33

0.45

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.40

0.66

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.43

0.71

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.58

0.83

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.18

0.17

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

0.04

0.08

0.

MONEY %

1.01

0.99

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.36

0.16

0.

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.08

-0.03

-0.

INFLATION

0.40

0.26

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.14

-0.03

0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.22

0.05

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

1.05

0.03

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.04

0.01

0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.63

0.19

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.18

0.07

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.23

-0.60

-0.

PRIV.INV %

0.81

-0.64

-1.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

6.42

6.24

6.

EXPORTS %

-0.07

-0.17

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.42

1.06

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.20

0.07

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.27

0.28

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.42

0.55

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.33

0.43

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

-0.01

-0.01

-0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.43

-0.56

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.40

-0.53

-0.

MONEY %

1.03

0.68

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.17

-0.05

-0.

INFLATION

0.43

0.13

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.17

-0.06

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.49

0.96

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.97

1.11

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

Note: see Table A.1.

-0.33

-0.27

-0.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.10

0.06

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.15

0.02

-0.02

-0.04

-0.05

-0.05

-0.04

0.13

0.09

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.16

0.11

0.09

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.06

0.08

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.11

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.90

0.93

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.97

0.98

0.95

0.99

1.01

1.02

1.02

1.03

1.03

1.00

1.02

1.02

1.03

1.02

1.02

1.02

0.10

0.08

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.03

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.08

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-0.01

-0.03

-0.05

-0.07

-0.11

-0.15

-0.19

-0.01

-0.02

-0.05

-0.07

-0.10

-0.14

-0.18

-0.69

-0.67

-0.65

-0.64

-0.63

-0.62

-0.62

-1.21

-1.30

-1.50

-1.78

-2.09

-2.46

-2.85

6.20

6.31

6.28

6.18

6.08

5.98

5.85

-0.20

-0.20

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.20

-0.20

0.91

0.90

0.86

0.81

0.75

0.68

0.60

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

-0.03

-0.05

-0.07

-0.10

-0.14

-0.18

-0.27

0.59

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.57

0.45

0.44

0.44

0.44

0.44

0.44

0.43

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.59

-0.59

-0.59

-0.59

-0.59

-0.58

-0.57

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

-0.55

-0.55

0.51

0.49

0.47

0.45

0.41

0.37

0.31

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.04

3.34

4.43

5.55

6.66

7.77

8.90

10.04

1.17

1.18

1.20

1.22

1.25

1.28

1.31

-0.25

-0.26

-0.25

-0.23

-0.21

-0.19

-0.17


39




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