QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



7$%/( $   1(7+(5/$1'6


,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW


Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.55

0.27

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.13

0.06

0.

PRIV.CONS %

0.48

0.13

0.

PRIV.INV %

0.61

0.25

0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.35

0.33

0.

EXPORTS %

0.95

0.61

0.

IMPORTS %

0.69

0.40

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.16

0.05

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.24

0.37

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.46

0.74

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.42

0.74

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.50

0.78

0.

DM.EXCH.RATE %

-0.03

0.03

0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.04

0.05

0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.10

-0.05

-0.

MONEY %

1.01

0.99

1.

SHORT.RATE

0.36

0.21

0.

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.06

0.03

0.

INFLATION

0.46

0.27

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.15

-0.05

0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.14

0.02

0.

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.63

0.02

-0.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

0.14

0.13

0.


,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW

3XUFKDVHV

Year:

1

2

3

TOTAL.GDP %

0.09

0.01

0.

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.04

0.01

0.

PRIV.CONS %

-0.27

-0.48

-0.

PRIV.INV %

-0.15

-0.11

-0.

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

7.09

7.09

7.

EXPORTS %

-0.08

-0.13

-0.

IMPORTS %

1.10

0.98

0.

EMPLOYMENT %

0.05

0.02

0.

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.00

0.02

0.

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.09

0.07

0.

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.03

0.03

0.

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

-0.01

-0.01

-0.

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.10

-0.08

-0.

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.08

-0.06

-0.

MONEY %

0.15

0.03

0.

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.04

0.00

0.

INFLATION

0.09

-0.02

0.

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.05

-0.02

-0.

DEBT.TO.GDP

0.54

1.65

2.

DEFG.TO.GDP

1.04

1.09

1.

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

Note: see Table A.1.

-0.66

-0.64

-0.


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.05

0.02

0.00

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.08

-0.14

-0.16

-0.16

-0.15

-0.14

-0.13

0.09

0.06

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.27

0.22

0.20

0.18

0.17

0.17

0.16

0.22

0.19

0.19

0.18

0.18

0.18

0.18

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

0.07

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.95

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.00

1.01

1.01

1.01

1.05

1.08

1.09

1.09

1.09

1.10

1.01

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.07

1.06

1.06

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.01

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

0.05

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00


RI

*'3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.00

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.45

-0.43

-0.41

-0.40

-0.39

-0.38

-0.37

-0.10

-0.09

-0.12

-0.16

-0.21

-0.27

-0.34

7.13

7.17

7.15

7.10

7.06

7.01

6.96

-0.11

-0.10

-0.10

-0.11

-0.12

-0.13

-0.13

0.96

0.96

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.94

0.94

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.03

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.07

-0.06

-0.06

-0.07

-0.07

-0.07

-0.07

-0.05

-0.04

-0.04

-0.04

-0.05

-0.05

-0.05

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

3.73

4.76

5.84

6.91

7.98

9.06

10.14

1.14

1.16

1.19

1.21

1.24

1.27

1.30

-0.67

-0.69

-0.68

-0.68

-0.68

-0.67

-0.67


42




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