QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ 1(7+(5/$1'6

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.55	0.27	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.13	0.06	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.48	0.13	0.
PRIV.INV %	0.61	0.25	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.35	0.33	0.
EXPORTS %	0.95	0.61	0.
IMPORTS %	0.69	0.40	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.16	0.05	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.24	0.37	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.46	0.74	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.42	0.74	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.50	0.78	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	-0.03	0.03	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.04	0.05	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.10	-0.05	-0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.36	0.21	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	0.06	0.03	0.
INFLATION	0.46	0.27	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.15	-0.05	0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.14	0.02	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.63	0.02	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	0.14	0.13	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.09	0.01	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.04	0.01	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.27	-0.48	-0.
PRIV.INV %	-0.15	-0.11	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	7.09	7.09	7.
EXPORTS %	-0.08	-0.13	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.10	0.98	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.05	0.02	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.00	0.02	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.09	0.07	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.03	0.03	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.10	-0.08	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.08	-0.06	-0.
MONEY %	0.15	0.03	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	0.04	0.00	0.
INFLATION	0.09	-0.02	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.05	-0.02	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.54	1.65	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.04	1.09	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.1.	-0.66	-0.64	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01
-0.08	-0.14	-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.14	-0.13
0.09	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
0.27	0.22	0.20	0.18	0.17	0.17	0.16
0.22	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.18	0.18	0.18
-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.07	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01
0.95	0.98	0.99	1.00	1.00	1.01	1.01
1.01	1.05	1.08	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.10
1.01	1.05	1.06	1.07	1.07	1.06	1.06
0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.06
0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.05
0.01	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.07	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00
-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.45	-0.43	-0.41	-0.40	-0.39	-0.38	-0.37
-0.10	-0.09	-0.12	-0.16	-0.21	-0.27	-0.34
7.13	7.17	7.15	7.10	7.06	7.01	6.96
-0.11	-0.10	-0.10	-0.11	-0.12	-0.13	-0.13
0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03
0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.06
0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.07	-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.07
-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05
0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
3.73	4.76	5.84	6.91	7.98	9.06	10.14
1.14	1.16	1.19	1.21	1.24	1.27	1.30
-0.67	-0.69	-0.68	-0.68	-0.68	-0.67	-0.67

42

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