QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ '(10$5.

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.53	0.31	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.16	0.10	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.50	0.20	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.39	0.63	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.34	0.39	0.
EXPORTS %	0.67	0.39	0.
IMPORTS %	0.68	0.33	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.14	0.06	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.23	0.39	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.42	0.66	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.47	0.73	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.58	0.78	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.06	0.03	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.16	0.12	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.01	0.02	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.21	0.16	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.06	-0.02	-0.
INFLATION	0.42	0.24	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.13	-0.06	0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.15	0.02	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.54	0.05	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.02	0.02	0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.28	0.12	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.11	0.08	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.28	-0.56	-0.
PRIV.INV %	0.53	-0.01	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	4.23	4.26	4.
EXPORTS %	-0.06	-0.13	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.32	1.08	1.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.10	0.07	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.07	0.12	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.23	0.29	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.12	0.15	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.24	-0.29	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.23	-0.28	-0.
MONEY %	0.47	0.31	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.07	-0.03	-0.
INFLATION	0.24	0.05	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.09	-0.06	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.37	1.55	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.08	1.17	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.54	-0.46	-0.
Note: see Table A.1.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.09	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02
0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02
0.06	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00
-0.03	-0.13	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-0.14
0.14	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
0.19	0.14	0.11	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07
0.09	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
0.13	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00
0.89	0.94	0.96	0.98	0.98	0.99	1.00
0.97	1.02	1.05	1.06	1.07	1.07	1.08
0.96	0.99	1.00	1.01	1.01	1.01	1.00
0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.08	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.04
0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.03
-0.53	-0.50	-0.48	-0.46	-0.45	-0.44	-0.44
-0.29	-0.32	-0.45	-0.67	-0.94	-1.27	-1.67
4.24	4.27	4.25	4.21	4.16	4.10	4.02
-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16
1.04	1.06	1.04	1.01	0.97	0.91	0.84
0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05
0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	-0.05	-0.11
0.31	0.31	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33
0.16	0.15	0.15	0.16	0.16	0.17	0.17
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.31	-0.31	-0.31	-0.32	-0.32	-0.33	-0.34
-0.30	-0.30	-0.30	-0.30	-0.31	-0.32	-0.32
0.26	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.23	0.20
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04
3.81	4.91	6.07	7.20	8.35	9.50	10.67
1.21	1.24	1.26	1.29	1.32	1.36	1.39
-0.47	-0.49	-0.48	-0.46	-0.44	-0.41	-0.37

44

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