QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ 63$,1

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.68	0.44	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.09	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.52	0.26	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.95	1.13	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.54	0.54	0.
EXPORTS %	0.53	0.32	0.
IMPORTS %	0.74	0.35	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.14	0.04	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.40	0.55	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.31	0.54	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.39	0.63	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.63	0.81	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.11	0.06	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.32	0.27	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.19	0.17	0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.17	0.15	0.
LONG.RATE	0.02	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.08	-0.03	-0.
INFLATION	0.30	0.23	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.11	-0.03	0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.10	0.04	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.63	0.00	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.12	-0.04	-0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.61	0.23	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.14	0.08	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.15	-0.44	-0.
PRIV.INV %	1.07	-0.09	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	6.37	6.21	6.
EXPORTS %	-0.05	-0.15	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.43	1.07	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.15	0.06	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.30	0.31	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.28	0.40	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.18	0.24	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	-0.02	-0.02	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.30	-0.41	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.28	-0.39	-0.
MONEY %	0.87	0.59	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.15	-0.06	-0.
INFLATION	0.28	0.11	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.12	-0.05	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.13	1.41	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.08	1.15	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.1.	-0.47	-0.38	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.19	0.14	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.05
0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03
0.13	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05
0.30	0.12	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03
0.24	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.10	0.08	0.07
0.16	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.07
0.10	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.21	0.15	0.11	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05
0.79	0.85	0.89	0.91	0.92	0.93	0.94
0.88	0.93	0.96	0.98	0.99	1.00	1.00
0.98	1.02	1.03	1.03	1.03	1.03	1.03
0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03
0.19	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.11	0.10	0.09
0.14	0.12	0.11	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.08
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
0.09	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	-0.07	-0.11
0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	-0.07	-0.10
-0.50	-0.48	-0.46	-0.46	-0.45	-0.45	-0.46
-0.58	-0.62	-0.77	-1.00	-1.27	-1.58	-1.95
6.24	6.38	6.37	6.29	6.21	6.12	6.01
-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19
0.92	0.92	0.89	0.84	0.78	0.71	0.62
0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03
0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	-0.06	-0.09	-0.16
0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.44	0.44
0.26	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.26	0.26
-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.46	-0.46	-0.46	-0.46	-0.46	-0.46	-0.45
-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.44	-0.43	-0.43
0.43	0.41	0.40	0.38	0.36	0.33	0.28
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02
0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
3.69	4.76	5.89	7.01	8.14	9.27	10.42
1.19	1.21	1.23	1.26	1.28	1.31	1.33
-0.37	-0.39	-0.37	-0.35	-0.32	-0.29	-0.25

41

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