7$%/( $ )5$1&(
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|
Year: |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
TOTAL.GDP % |
0.60 |
0.35 |
0.20 |
0.12 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
|
POT.PRIV.GDP % |
0.15 |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
|
PRIV.CONS % |
0.45 |
0.23 |
0.15 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
|
PRIV.INV % |
1.39 |
0.78 |
0.40 |
0.18 |
0.07 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
TOT.PUBL.EXP % |
0.40 |
0.40 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
0.08 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
|
EXPORTS % |
0.80 |
0.42 |
0.26 |
0.17 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
|
IMPORTS % |
0.66 |
0.37 |
0.22 |
0.15 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
|
EMPLOYMENT % |
0.16 |
0.06 |
0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
REAL.WAGE.COSTS % |
0.28 |
0.43 |
0.23 |
0.13 |
0.08 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
|
PRICE.LEVEL % |
0.40 |
0.65 |
0.80 |
0.88 |
0.92 |
0.94 |
0.95 |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.96 |
|
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL % |
0.40 |
0.65 |
0.81 |
0.89 |
0.93 |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
|
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE % |
0.53 |
0.74 |
0.87 |
0.93 |
0.95 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
0.96 |
|
REAL.EXCH.RATE % |
0.12 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE % |
-0.03 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
MONEY % |
1.01 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
SHORT.RATE |
0.26 |
0.17 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
LONG.RATE |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
REAL.SHORT.RATE |
-0.01 |
-0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
INFLATION |
0.40 |
0.24 |
0.15 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
UNEMPL.RATE |
-0.14 |
-0.06 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
DEBT.TO.GDP |
-0.10 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
DEFG.TO.GDP |
0.49 |
0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP |
0.04 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
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|
Year: |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
TOTAL.GDP % |
0.57 |
0.18 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.02 |
-0.04 |
-0.06 |
-0.10 |
-0.15 |
|
POT.PRIV.GDP % |
0.18 |
0.10 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.03 |
-0.05 |
-0.09 |
-0.12 |
|
PRIV.CONS % |
-0.21 |
-0.54 |
-0.59 |
-0.58 |
-0.56 |
-0.54 |
-0.53 |
-0.53 |
-0.53 |
-0.54 |
|
PRIV.INV % |
0.78 |
-0.33 |
-0.68 |
-0.80 |
-0.87 |
-1.07 |
-1.35 |
-1.67 |
-2.04 |
-2.45 |
|
TOT.PUBL.EXP % |
5.31 |
5.26 |
5.17 |
5.20 |
5.27 |
5.24 |
5.17 |
5.10 |
5.02 |
4.91 |
|
EXPORTS % |
-0.12 |
-0.34 |
-0.37 |
-0.39 |
-0.40 |
-0.40 |
-0.40 |
-0.40 |
-0.39 |
-0.39 |
|
IMPORTS % |
1.40 |
1.05 |
0.96 |
0.93 |
0.92 |
0.88 |
0.82 |
0.75 |
0.67 |
0.58 |
|
EMPLOYMENT % |
0.19 |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
|
REAL.WAGE.COSTS % |
0.19 |
0.23 |
0.05 |
-0.01 |
-0.04 |
-0.05 |
-0.07 |
-0.10 |
-0.14 |
-0.22 |
|
PRICE.LEVEL % |
0.40 |
0.49 |
0.51 |
0.51 |
0.51 |
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.49 |
0.48 |
0.47 |
|
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL % |
0.27 |
0.33 |
0.34 |
0.34 |
0.33 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.31 |
|
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE % |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
REAL.EXCH.RATE % |
-0.40 |
-0.49 |
-0.52 |
-0.52 |
-0.51 |
-0.50 |
-0.50 |
-0.49 |
-0.48 |
-0.47 |
|
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE % |
-0.36 |
-0.45 |
-0.47 |
-0.47 |
-0.46 |
-0.45 |
-0.45 |
-0.45 |
-0.44 |
-0.43 |
|
MONEY % |
0.95 |
0.61 |
0.51 |
0.47 |
0.45 |
0.43 |
0.40 |
0.37 |
0.33 |
0.27 |
|
SHORT.RATE |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
LONG.RATE |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
REAL.SHORT.RATE |
-0.13 |
-0.04 |
-0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
|
INFLATION |
0.39 |
0.09 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
UNEMPL.RATE |
-0.17 |
-0.08 |
-0.04 |
-0.03 |
-0.03 |
-0.03 |
-0.04 |
-0.04 |
-0.04 |
-0.04 |
|
DEBT.TO.GDP |
0.20 |
1.46 |
2.61 |
3.70 |
4.78 |
5.92 |
7.04 |
8.16 |
9.29 |
10.43 |
|
DEFG.TO.GDP |
1.06 |
1.12 |
1.15 |
1.18 |
1.20 |
1.22 |
1.25 |
1.28 |
1.30 |
1.33 |
|
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP |
-0.39 |
-0.35 |
-0.34 |
-0.35 |
-0.36 |
-0.35 |
-0.32 |
-0.30 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
Note: % percentage difference from base, otherwise absolute difference from base.
Monetary shock: permanent EU-wide 1% increase in money supply, under fully flexible exchange rates.
Fiscal shock: increase in government purchases of goods and services of 1% of GDP for a period of 10
years, with tax rule switched off for 10 years. Fixed exchange rates in EU, with German interest rate
targetting.
38
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