QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model



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Year:

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

TOTAL.GDP %

0.63

0.38

0.22

0.13

0.07

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.14

0.09

0.04

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

-0.01

-0.01

PRIV.CONS %

0.47

0.25

0.15

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.04

PRIV.INV %

1.10

0.70

0.37

0.15

0.02

-0.04

-0.07

-0.08

-0.08

-0.08

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

0.50

0.45

0.29

0.19

0.13

0.10

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.05

EXPORTS %

1.00

0.56

0.37

0.27

0.21

0.18

0.15

0.14

0.13

0.12

IMPORTS %

0.62

0.35

0.20

0.12

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

EMPLOYMENT %

0.16

0.08

0.00

-0.02

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.29

0.47

0.28

0.17

0.11

0.07

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.02

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.36

0.60

0.76

0.86

0.91

0.94

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.98

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.40

0.67

0.84

0.94

0.99

1.02

1.04

1.05

1.05

1.05

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

0.52

0.75

0.89

0.96

0.99

1.01

1.01

1.01

1.01

1.00

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

0.16

0.15

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

0.03

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

MONEY %

1.01

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

SHORT.RATE

0.29

0.17

0.09

0.05

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

LONG.RATE

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

REAL.SHORT.RATE

0.03

-0.01

-0.02

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

INFLATION

0.36

0.24

0.16

0.09

0.05

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.00

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.15

-0.07

0.00

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.02

DEBT.TO.GDP

-0.13

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

DEFG.TO.GDP

0.51

0.03

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

0.09

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

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Year:

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

TOTAL.GDP %

0.48

0.16

0.06

0.01

-0.01

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.09

-0.13

POT.PRIV.GDP %

0.13

0.08

0.03

0.01

0.00

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.09

-0.12

PRIV.CONS %

-0.30

-0.62

-0.65

-0.64

-0.61

-0.59

-0.58

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

PRIV.INV %

0.28

-0.41

-0.67

-0.79

-0.86

-1.01

-1.22

-1.45

-1.73

-2.02

TOT.PUBL.EXP %

5.45

5.39

5.36

5.41

5.49

5.47

5.41

5.35

5.29

5.20

EXPORTS %

-0.25

-0.45

-0.49

-0.51

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

IMPORTS %

1.22

0.94

0.87

0.84

0.82

0.79

0.75

0.69

0.63

0.56

EMPLOYMENT %

0.16

0.09

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.05

REAL.WAGE.COSTS %

0.14

0.18

0.04

-0.01

-0.04

-0.06

-0.07

-0.10

-0.13

-0.20

PRICE.LEVEL %

0.28

0.35

0.38

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.40

0.40

CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %

0.21

0.25

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.28

0.28

0.29

0.29

DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %

-0.07

-0.07

-0.06

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

REAL.EXCH.RATE %

-0.35

-0.42

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.43

-0.42

-0.42

-0.41

-0.40

REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %

-0.29

-0.36

-0.37

-0.37

-0.37

-0.36

-0.36

-0.36

-0.35

-0.34

MONEY %

0.73

0.45

0.37

0.33

0.31

0.30

0.29

0.27

0.24

0.21

SHORT.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

LONG.RATE

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

REAL.SHORT.RATE

-0.09

-0.03

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

INFLATION

0.28

0.07

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

UNEMPL.RATE

-0.15

-0.09

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.03

-0.04

-0.04

-0.04

DEBT.TO.GDP

0.22

1.42

2.50

3.56

4.61

5.71

6.79

7.87

8.96

10.05

DEFG.TO.GDP

1.00

1.08

1.11

1.14

1.16

1.19

1.21

1.24

1.27

1.29

TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP

-0.34

-0.32

-0.32

-0.33

-0.35

-0.34

-0.32

-0.30

-0.28

-0.26

Note: % percentage difference from base, otherwise absolute difference from base.

Monetary shock: permanent EU-wide 1% increase in money supply, under fully flexible exchange rates.

Fiscal shock: increase in government purchases of goods and services of 1% of GDP for a period of 10
years, with tax rule switched off for 10 years. Fixed exchange rates in EU, with German interest rate
targetting.

37



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