QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ 32578*$/

,QFUHDVH rI Lq 0RQH\ 7DUJHW

Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.51	0.26	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.16	0.09	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.40	0.15	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.94	0.90	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.34	0.30	0.
EXPORTS %	0.41	0.20	0.
IMPORTS %	0.76	0.35	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.15	0.06	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.22	0.35	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.49	0.74	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.50	0.72	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.66	0.82	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.14	0.07	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.17	0.08	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.00	-0.03	-0.
MONEY %	1.01	1.00	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.18	0.13	0.
LONG.RATE	0.01	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.10	-0.03	-0.
INFLATION	0.50	0.25	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.14	-0.05	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.08	0.03	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.55	-0.01	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.23	-0.08	-0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.29	0.09	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.11	0.06	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.16	-0.39	-0.
PRIV.INV %	0.40	-0.13	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	4.80	4.66	4.
EXPORTS %	-0.06	-0.10	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.12	0.88	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.12	0.06	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.07	0.11	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.29	0.33	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.12	0.13	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.30	-0.34	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.29	-0.33	-0.
MONEY %	0.56	0.38	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.06	-0.01	0.
INFLATION	0.29	0.04	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.11	-0.06	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.35	1.52	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.05	1.12	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP Note: see Table A.1.	-0.57	-0.48	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.08	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
0.06	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
0.22	0.12	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.08	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.12	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.09	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
0.92	0.94	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96
0.91	0.94	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.97
0.96	0.98	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01
0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.04
0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.03
-0.39	-0.36	-0.35	-0.34	-0.34	-0.34	-0.34
-0.28	-0.28	-0.44	-0.66	-0.90	-1.17	-1.46
4.72	4.82	4.81	4.76	4.71	4.65	4.58
-0.10	-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.08
0.82	0.82	0.79	0.74	0.68	0.62	0.55
0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.04	-0.08
0.31	0.30	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.27	0.26
0.12	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.32	-0.31	-0.29	-0.29	-0.28	-0.27	-0.27
-0.31	-0.29	-0.28	-0.28	-0.27	-0.26	-0.26
0.29	0.28	0.27	0.26	0.24	0.22	0.19
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
3.68	4.71	5.82	6.91	8.01	9.12	10.23
1.17	1.18	1.20	1.23	1.26	1.28	1.31
-0.50	-0.52	-0.49	-0.45	-0.41	-0.37	-0.32

46

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