QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

7$%/( $ $8675,$

,QFUHDVH rI Lq	0RQH\	7DUJHW
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.53	0.27	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.12	0.05	0.
PRIV.CONS %	0.51	0.20	0.
PRIV.INV %	1.11	0.59	0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	0.43	0.32	0.
EXPORTS %	0.53	0.27	0.
IMPORTS %	0.66	0.34	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.13	0.02	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.31	0.38	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.44	0.72	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.45	0.70	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	0.59	0.79	0.
DM.EXCH.RATE %	0.07	0.04	0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	0.15	0.07	0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	0.00	-0.04	-0.
MONEY %	1.01	0.99	1.
SHORT.RATE	0.19	0.15	0.
LONG.RATE	0.01	0.01	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.12	-0.04	-0.
INFLATION	0.44	0.27	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.12	-0.02	0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	-0.13	0.04	0.
DEFG.TO.GDP	0.58	0.03	-0.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.09	-0.03	-0.

,QFUHDVH Lq *RYHUQPHQW		3XUFKDVHV
Year:	1	2	3
TOTAL.GDP %	0.27	0.07	0.
POT.PRIV.GDP %	0.07	0.03	0.
PRIV.CONS %	-0.20	-0.46	-0.
PRIV.INV %	0.20	-0.13	-0.
TOT.PUBL.EXP %	5.08	5.04	5.
EXPORTS %	-0.10	-0.20	-0.
IMPORTS %	1.12	0.91	0.
EMPLOYMENT %	0.08	0.03	0.
REAL.WAGE.COSTS %	0.12	0.10	0.
PRICE.LEVEL %	0.23	0.28	0.
CONS.PRICE.LEVEL %	0.10	0.11	0.
DOLLAR.EXCH.RATE %	-0.01	-0.01	-0.
REAL.EXCH.RATE %	-0.24	-0.29	-0.
REAL.EFF.EXCH.RATE %	-0.22	-0.27	-0.
MONEY %	0.46	0.28	0.
SHORT.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
LONG.RATE	0.00	0.00	0.
REAL.SHORT.RATE	-0.08	-0.01	0.
INFLATION	0.23	0.05	0.
UNEMPL.RATE	-0.08	-0.02	-0.
DEBT.TO.GDP	0.38	1.57	2.
DEFG.TO.GDP	1.07	1.13	1.
TRADE.BAL.TO.GDP	-0.58	-0.52	-0.

4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.08	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05
0.15	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
0.10	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
0.14	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.06
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03
0.91	0.94	0.95	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.96
0.91	0.94	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98
0.94	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96
-0.02	-0.03	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04
0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01

RI	*'3
4	5	6	7	8	9	10
0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.03
0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.03
-0.46	-0.44	-0.41	-0.40	-0.39	-0.39	-0.38
-0.19	-0.17	-0.26	-0.40	-0.58	-0.78	-1.01
5.12	5.22	5.23	5.19	5.15	5.10	5.04
-0.21	-0.20	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.20
0.87	0.88	0.86	0.83	0.79	0.75	0.69
0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02
-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.06
0.26	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.25	0.25
0.09	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.09
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
-0.28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.26
-0.25	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.24
0.20	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.17
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02
3.79	4.87	5.98	7.07	8.17	9.27	10.39
1.17	1.19	1.22	1.25	1.28	1.31	1.34
-0.56	-0.59	-0.57	-0.54	-0.51	-0.47	-0.43

Note: see Table A.1.

48

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