the discretionary fiscal policy impact in upturns (periods in which the real growth rate is
above the potential growth rate) and downturns (periods in which the real growth rate is
below the potential growth rate). It appears that in upturns a strong pro-cyclical
discretionary policy impact dominates (however, the γ coefficient is slightly smaller than
the overall budget sensitivity estimated by the OECD for Austria),63 whereas the pro-
cyclical impact in downturns turns out to be negligible. Hence, we can conclude that in
Austria overall fiscal policy in downturns is counter-cyclical, whereas in upturns the
working of automatic stabilisers is neutralised (see Figure 4.9). This is in principle in line
with general findings based on panel regressions for OECD countries (such as those by
OECD (2003), Balassone et al. (2004) or Forni and Momigliano (2004); these papers
provide evidence for counter-cyclical behaviour in downturns and - at least the first two
studies - pro-cyclicality in upturns.)
Results for the Total Balance
Figure 4.9
Budget balances: actual and "core'
•core balance: nu — — — - actual balance — core balance ±1.96*std
Reaction to cycle
reaction to cycle: gamma upturn ----------reaction to cycle: gamma downturn EC automatic stabillzer: alpha
Budget balances: "core" and cyclically adjusted
• core balance: nu----EC cyclically adj.balance (based on potential GDP)
"Core" discretionary policy
■ core discretionary policy: eta core discretionary policy ±1.96*std ∣
Finally we focus on the evolution of the core balances. Compared to the cyclically
adjusted budget balances the core balances exhibits slightly less variability.
As mentioned in the introduction, the variability of these reflect discretionary measures
not related to the cycle, such as permanent consolidation measures, measures aiming at
distributional and allocative/structural goals or effects of macroeconomic shocks,
demographic changes, etc. Thus Figure 4.10 depicts major episodes of fiscal
consolidation on the one hand and the introduction of expenditure measures aiming at
further improving the Austrian welfare state on the other hand, as well as the impact of
structural changes in the Austrian economy.
For example, in 1984 Austria implemented a sizeable consolidation package, including
the increase of the VAT rate and other indirect taxes as well as the contribution rate of the
unemployment insurance scheme. Another big consolidation package was implemented
However, the coefficient is of the same size as the overall budget sensitivity calculated by the OeNB.
Taking the OeNB’s value of the overall budget sensitivity would lead to the conclusion that the
impact of the automatic stabilizers is completely neutralized in upturns.
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