Retirement and the Poverty of the Elderly in Portugal



Table 6-1: Probit model of Mobility into Poverty for People who Retire

Variable

Model 1 -
Bottom 20%

Marginal effect

Model 2 -

Bottom 33%

Marginal
effect

Model 3 -
60% median

Marginal
effect

Model 4 - 66%
1994 median

Marginal
_______
effect

Gender

Male

0,014

0,007

-0,001

-0,019

Activity status

employee

0,065

0,042

0,064

0,059

part time

0,325

self-employed

0,108 *

0,179 *

0,150 *

0,114 *

unpaid activity

0,160 **

0,294 *

0,241 *

0,214 *

unemployed

0,109 **

0,054

0,105 **

0,055

Industry

manufacturing

-0,079 **

-0,091

-0,095 *

-0,062 *

services

-0,081 *

-0,056

-0,079 *

-0,035

early retired

-0,024

-0,054

-0,029

-0,026

owner-occupier

-0,057

-0,075

0,000

-0,046

free occupier

-0,042

-0,033

0,082

-0,023

Region

centro

-0,017

-0,076

0,005

0,012

lisbon

-0,093 *

-0,070

-0,073 **

-0,016

alentejo

0,141 *

0,099

0,197 *

0,065 **

algarve

-0,027

-0,097 **

-0,014

-0,017

acores

-0,025

-0,095

-0,014

-0,018

Type of family

retired alone with children

0,006

0,063

0,048

0,066

retired couple with no children

-0,013

0,039

0,015

0,011

retired couple with children

-0,132 *

-0,072

-0,107 **

-0,068 **

others

-0,019

0,044

0,050

-0,014

civil servant

___________-0,075 *

-0,121 *

-0,091 *

-0,093 *

N° Obs

664

531

660

664

LR chi2

76 *

76 *

95,23 *

73,19 *

Pseudo R2

___________0,131

0,141

0,161

0,158

* - significant at 5% level; ** -

significant at 10% level

Note: The reference individual is a female, not a civil servant, not early retired, living in

north region,

working in agriculture, that lives alone, and who is a tenant in her home.

32



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