Retirement and the Poverty of the Elderly in Portugal

Table 6-1: Probit model of Mobility into Poverty for People who Retire

Variable	Model 1 - Bottom 20% Marginal effect	Model 2 - Bottom 33% Marginal effect	Model 3 - 60% median Marginal effect	Model 4 - 66% 1994 median Marginal _______effect
Gender
Male	0,014	0,007	-0,001	-0,019
Activity status
employee	0,065	0,042	0,064	0,059
part time		0,325
self-employed	0,108 *	0,179 *	0,150 *	0,114 *
unpaid activity	0,160 **	0,294 *	0,241 *	0,214 *
unemployed	0,109 **	0,054	0,105 **	0,055
Industry
manufacturing	-0,079 **	-0,091	-0,095 *	-0,062 *
services	-0,081 *	-0,056	-0,079 *	-0,035
early retired	-0,024	-0,054	-0,029	-0,026
owner-occupier	-0,057	-0,075	0,000	-0,046
free occupier	-0,042	-0,033	0,082	-0,023
Region
centro	-0,017	-0,076	0,005	0,012
lisbon	-0,093 *	-0,070	-0,073 **	-0,016
alentejo	0,141 *	0,099	0,197 *	0,065 **
algarve	-0,027	-0,097 **	-0,014	-0,017
acores	-0,025	-0,095	-0,014	-0,018
Type of family
retired alone with children	0,006	0,063	0,048	0,066
retired couple with no children	-0,013	0,039	0,015	0,011
retired couple with children	-0,132 *	-0,072	-0,107 **	-0,068 **
others	-0,019	0,044	0,050	-0,014
civil servant	___________-0,075 *	-0,121 *	-0,091 *	-0,093 *
N° Obs	664	531	660	664
LR chi2	76 *	76 *	95,23 *	73,19 *
Pseudo R2	___________0,131	0,141	0,161	0,158
* - significant at 5% level; ** -	significant at 10% level
Note: The reference individual is a female, not a civil servant, not early retired, living in				north region,
working in agriculture, that lives alone, and who is a tenant in her home.

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