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Table 8

Probit estimates of the effects of employ and unemploy evaluated at the means of explanatory variables: re-estimating the EU equation in Table 4 (excluding isb ) sector by sector

	a.	agriculture,	hunting, forestry		d. manufacturing			e. electricity,	gas, water supply		f. construction			g. wholesale/retail trade, repair		of motor goods
	a.	agriculture,	hunting, forestry		d. manufacturing			e. electricity,	gas, water supply		f. construction			vehicles	and personal/household	of motor goods
		i	ii	iii	i	ii	iii	i	ii	iii	i	ii	iii	i	ii	iii
employ		-0.046	-0.108	-0.042	-0.018	-0.020	0.004	0.250	-0.207	s(2)	0.060	0.028	0.148 **	0.033	-0.012	0.095 *
		0.064	0.069	0.080	0.059	0.113	0.076	0.234	0.152		0.056	0.094	0.068	0.042	0.077	0.055
unemploy		-0.046	0.063	-0.302 ***	0.091 *	0.166 **	-0.001	0.102	f(1)	0.297 *	0.174 **	0.039	0.283 **	0.081	-0.010	0.100
		0.093	0.095	0.057	0.052	0.071	0.076	0.262		0.210	0.074	0.105	0.119	0.050	0.086	0.108
log pseudolikelihood		-597.292	-239.651	-231.929	-2160.335	-849.757	-1165.849	-78.528	-17.108	-28.937	-765.825	-319.064	-363.602	-1504.710	-553.108	-820.300
McFadden's (1974) LRI		0.126	0.174	0.172	0.097	0.102	0.088	0.308	0.555	0.478	0.120	0.136	0.147	0.116	0.117	0.119
R²p		0.233	0.068	0.313	0.292	0.169	0.127	0.294	0.480	0.233	0.267	0.101	0.221	0.303	0.119	0.123
Sum of PCP		1.368	1.276	1.346	1.312	1.271	1.232	1.365	1.564	1.416	1.310	1.224	1.291	1.334	1.255	1.233
obs.		990.000	486.000________	435.000_______	______3472.000_______	1389.000_____	1956.000_____	________177.000	_____58.000________	90.000	_______1257.000_______	567.000	656.000______	______2489.000	________926.000________	1476.000

	h.	hotels,	restaurants		i. transport,	storage, communication		j. financial	intermediation		k. real estate/ activities	renting/business		l. public administration, defence,
	h.	hotels,	restaurants		i. transport,	storage, communication		j. financial	intermediation		k. real estate/ activities	renting/business		compulsory	social security
employ		0.103	0.286 **	iii 0.038	0.019	-0.072	iii 0.093	0.125	0.260	iii 0.074	-0.019	0.054	iii -0.033	-0.076	s(1)	iii 0.059
unemploy		0.088 -0.060	0.086 0.121	0.078 -0.201 ***	0.076 -0.079	0.153 -0.156	0.090 0.011	0.139 -0.097	0.221 0.389 ***	0.120 -0.225 **	0.055 0.079	0.103 0.220 **	0.059 0.015	0.135 0.395 *** 0.233		0.152 0.476 ***
log pseudolikelihood		0.072 -393.957	0.123 -130.113	0.043 -188.073	0.108 -741.708	0.151 -268.944	0.148 -415.953	0.145 -319.518	0.067 -97.736	0.058 -182.221	0.087 -927.933	0.092 -239.084	0.093 -614.894	0.097 -730.022	0.110 -238.851	0.142 -401.225
McFadden's (1974) LRI		0.256	0.342	0.263	0.117	0.160	0.100	0.153	0.209	0.160	0.150	0.197	0.153	0.139	0.148	0.137
R²p		0.388	0.272	0.166	0.318	0.215	0.186	0.255	0.217	0.184	0.149	0.386	0.041	0.334	0.166	0.156
Sum of PCP		1.429	1.443	1.346	1.344	1.352	1.271	1.333	1.301	1.297	1.287	1.391	1.213	1.386	1.334	1.282
obs.______________________		784.000	________296.000______	437.000________	1229.000	______469.000	722.000_______	_______575.000	_______181.000______	370.000______	______1693.000	434.000______	1200.000______	______1255.000	______423.000________	783.000

	m. education	n. health/social	work	o. other communi activities	ty/social/personal	service	p. household	activities
	i ii iii	i	ii iii	i	ii	iii	i	ii iii
employ	0.076 -0.082 0.133	0.002	-0.147 0.034	-0.015	-0.293 **	0.017	0.260 *	0.245 * 0.414 *
	0.091 0.171 0.122	0.086	0.191 0.079	0.086	0.124	0.080	0.120	0.063 0.178
unemploy	0.164 0.355 ** -0.047 0.117 0.127 0.103	-0.062 0.090	-0.086 -0.116 0.144 0.061	0.020 0.095	-0.168 0.143	-0.018 0.138	-0.332 * 0.132	-0.682 *** f(5) 0.102
log pseudolikelihood	-761.198 -209.113 -454.197	-1181.794	-288.439 -737.163	-542.175	-133.208	-314.110	-132.186	-61.373 -20.440
McFadden's (1974) LRI	0.134 0.159 0.159	0.123	0.182 0.133	0.186	0.318	0.212	0.159	0.212 0.535
R²p	0.113 0.280 -0.012	0.102	0.211 0.027	0.250	0.210	0.181	0.200	-0.100 0.260
Sum of PCP	1.246 1.286 1.136	1.233	1.269 1.159	1.345	1.338	1.339	1.217	1.111 1.445
obs.	1493.000_________359.000________1070.000	_______2108.000______	510.000________1501.000	_________988.000______	295.000________	647.000	________227.000	_______125.000__________72.000

i Full sample

ii Those who thought that immigration would reduce wages and salaries on average

iii Those who did not think that immigration would decrease wages and salaries on average

s(n) n observations predict success perfectly, and the corresponding variable and the n observations are dropped in estimation.

f(n) n observations predict failure perfectly, and the corresponding variable and the n observations are dropped in estimation.

* 10% ** 5% *** 1%

Categories b (fishing) and c (mining, quarrying) are omitted due to the small number of observations.

The three goodness-of-fit measures are described in Verbeek (2004: 194-197). Sum of PCP is the sum of the proportions of correct predictions for anti = 1 and anti = 0.

Sampling weights provided by ESS are applied in maximum likelihood estimation. The adjustment reflects the population size of each country.

Estimated standard errors are based on the assumption that observations are not necessarily independent within each region of a country, but are independent across regions of the country.

14 country dummies are included with UK being the reference. (NB: Belgium is included because isb is not used.)

The full results are available from the author upon request.

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