Table 8
Probit estimates of the effects of employ and unemploy evaluated at the means of explanatory variables: re-estimating the EU equation in Table 4 (excluding isb ) sector by sector
|
a. |
agriculture, |
hunting, forestry |
d. manufacturing |
e. electricity, |
gas, water supply |
f. construction |
g. wholesale/retail trade, repair |
of motor | ||||||||
|
vehicles |
and personal/household | |||||||||||||||
|
i |
ii |
iii |
i |
ii |
iii |
i |
ii |
iii |
i |
ii |
iii |
i |
ii |
iii | ||
|
employ |
-0.046 |
-0.108 |
-0.042 |
-0.018 |
-0.020 |
0.004 |
0.250 |
-0.207 |
s(2) |
0.060 |
0.028 |
0.148 ** |
0.033 |
-0.012 |
0.095 * | |
|
0.064 |
0.069 |
0.080 |
0.059 |
0.113 |
0.076 |
0.234 |
0.152 |
0.056 |
0.094 |
0.068 |
0.042 |
0.077 |
0.055 | |||
|
unemploy |
-0.046 |
0.063 |
-0.302 *** |
0.091 * |
0.166 ** |
-0.001 |
0.102 |
f(1) |
0.297 * |
0.174 ** |
0.039 |
0.283 ** |
0.081 |
-0.010 |
0.100 | |
|
0.093 |
0.095 |
0.057 |
0.052 |
0.071 |
0.076 |
0.262 |
0.210 |
0.074 |
0.105 |
0.119 |
0.050 |
0.086 |
0.108 | |||
|
log pseudolikelihood |
-597.292 |
-239.651 |
-231.929 |
-2160.335 |
-849.757 |
-1165.849 |
-78.528 |
-17.108 |
-28.937 |
-765.825 |
-319.064 |
-363.602 |
-1504.710 |
-553.108 |
-820.300 | |
|
McFadden's (1974) LRI |
0.126 |
0.174 |
0.172 |
0.097 |
0.102 |
0.088 |
0.308 |
0.555 |
0.478 |
0.120 |
0.136 |
0.147 |
0.116 |
0.117 |
0.119 | |
|
R2p |
0.233 |
0.068 |
0.313 |
0.292 |
0.169 |
0.127 |
0.294 |
0.480 |
0.233 |
0.267 |
0.101 |
0.221 |
0.303 |
0.119 |
0.123 | |
|
Sum of PCP |
1.368 |
1.276 |
1.346 |
1.312 |
1.271 |
1.232 |
1.365 |
1.564 |
1.416 |
1.310 |
1.224 |
1.291 |
1.334 |
1.255 |
1.233 | |
|
obs. |
990.000 |
486.000________ |
435.000_______ |
______3472.000_______ |
1389.000_____ |
1956.000_____ |
________177.000 |
_____58.000________ |
90.000 |
_______1257.000_______ |
567.000 |
656.000______ |
______2489.000 |
________926.000________ |
1476.000 | |
|
h. |
hotels, |
restaurants |
i. transport, |
storage, communication |
j. financial |
intermediation |
k. real estate/ |
renting/business |
l. public administration, defence, | |||||||
|
compulsory |
social security | |||||||||||||||
|
employ |
0.103 |
0.286 ** |
iii 0.038 |
0.019 |
-0.072 |
iii 0.093 |
0.125 |
0.260 |
iii 0.074 |
-0.019 |
0.054 |
iii -0.033 |
-0.076 |
s(1) |
iii 0.059 | |
|
unemploy |
0.088 -0.060 |
0.086 0.121 |
0.078 -0.201 *** |
0.076 -0.079 |
0.153 -0.156 |
0.090 0.011 |
0.139 -0.097 |
0.221 0.389 *** |
0.120 -0.225 ** |
0.055 0.079 |
0.103 0.220 ** |
0.059 0.015 |
0.135 0.395 *** 0.233 |
0.152 0.476 *** | ||
|
log pseudolikelihood |
0.072 -393.957 |
0.123 -130.113 |
0.043 -188.073 |
0.108 -741.708 |
0.151 -268.944 |
0.148 -415.953 |
0.145 -319.518 |
0.067 -97.736 |
0.058 -182.221 |
0.087 -927.933 |
0.092 -239.084 |
0.093 -614.894 |
0.097 -730.022 |
0.110 -238.851 |
0.142 -401.225 | |
|
McFadden's (1974) LRI |
0.256 |
0.342 |
0.263 |
0.117 |
0.160 |
0.100 |
0.153 |
0.209 |
0.160 |
0.150 |
0.197 |
0.153 |
0.139 |
0.148 |
0.137 | |
|
R2p |
0.388 |
0.272 |
0.166 |
0.318 |
0.215 |
0.186 |
0.255 |
0.217 |
0.184 |
0.149 |
0.386 |
0.041 |
0.334 |
0.166 |
0.156 | |
|
Sum of PCP |
1.429 |
1.443 |
1.346 |
1.344 |
1.352 |
1.271 |
1.333 |
1.301 |
1.297 |
1.287 |
1.391 |
1.213 |
1.386 |
1.334 |
1.282 | |
|
obs.______________________ |
784.000 |
________296.000______ |
437.000________ |
1229.000 |
______469.000 |
722.000_______ |
_______575.000 |
_______181.000______ |
370.000______ |
______1693.000 |
434.000______ |
1200.000______ |
______1255.000 |
______423.000________ |
783.000 | |
|
m. education |
n. health/social |
work |
o. other communi |
ty/social/personal |
service |
p. household |
activities | |
|
i ii iii |
i |
ii iii |
i |
ii |
iii |
i |
ii iii | |
|
employ |
0.076 -0.082 0.133 |
0.002 |
-0.147 0.034 |
-0.015 |
-0.293 ** |
0.017 |
0.260 * |
0.245 *** 0.414 *** |
|
0.091 0.171 0.122 |
0.086 |
0.191 0.079 |
0.086 |
0.124 |
0.080 |
0.120 |
0.063 0.178 | |
|
unemploy |
0.164 0.355 ** -0.047 0.117 0.127 0.103 |
-0.062 0.090 |
-0.086 -0.116 0.144 0.061 |
0.020 0.095 |
-0.168 0.143 |
-0.018 0.138 |
-0.332 * 0.132 |
-0.682 *** f(5) 0.102 |
|
log pseudolikelihood |
-761.198 -209.113 -454.197 |
-1181.794 |
-288.439 -737.163 |
-542.175 |
-133.208 |
-314.110 |
-132.186 |
-61.373 -20.440 |
|
McFadden's (1974) LRI |
0.134 0.159 0.159 |
0.123 |
0.182 0.133 |
0.186 |
0.318 |
0.212 |
0.159 |
0.212 0.535 |
|
R2p |
0.113 0.280 -0.012 |
0.102 |
0.211 0.027 |
0.250 |
0.210 |
0.181 |
0.200 |
-0.100 0.260 |
|
Sum of PCP |
1.246 1.286 1.136 |
1.233 |
1.269 1.159 |
1.345 |
1.338 |
1.339 |
1.217 |
1.111 1.445 |
|
obs. |
1493.000_________359.000________1070.000 |
_______2108.000______ |
510.000________1501.000 |
_________988.000______ |
295.000________ |
647.000 |
________227.000 |
_______125.000__________72.000 |
i Full sample
ii Those who thought that immigration would reduce wages and salaries on average
iii Those who did not think that immigration would decrease wages and salaries on average
s(n) n observations predict success perfectly, and the corresponding variable and the n observations are dropped in estimation.
f(n) n observations predict failure perfectly, and the corresponding variable and the n observations are dropped in estimation.
* 10% ** 5% *** 1%
Categories b (fishing) and c (mining, quarrying) are omitted due to the small number of observations.
The three goodness-of-fit measures are described in Verbeek (2004: 194-197). Sum of PCP is the sum of the proportions of correct predictions for anti = 1 and anti = 0.
Sampling weights provided by ESS are applied in maximum likelihood estimation. The adjustment reflects the population size of each country.
Estimated standard errors are based on the assumption that observations are not necessarily independent within each region of a country, but are independent across regions of the country.
14 country dummies are included with UK being the reference. (NB: Belgium is included because isb is not used.)
The full results are available from the author upon request.
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