Table 7 Increase in US trade due to policy liberalization, declining transportation costs, and GDP
growth, 1980 to 2005 (billions of US dollars)
|
Partner/world estimates |
Exports |
Imports |
Total trade |
|
Trade with 17 partner estimates | |||
|
Observed US merchandise trade in 1980 with 17 partners |
166 |
173 |
338 |
|
Observed US merchandise trade in 2004 with 17 partners |
707 |
1294 |
2001 |
|
Observed increase in trade from 1980 to 2004 in merchandise trade |
542 |
1121 |
1663 |
|
Trade growth explained by GDP growth and income elasticities of trade |
413 |
970 |
1384 |
|
Trade growth explained by appreciation of US dollar and price elasticities of trade |
-53 |
77 |
24 |
|
Trade growth not explained by GDP growth or exchange rate change |
181 |
74 |
255 |
|
Trade growth explained by traditional trade policy liberalization (i.e., tariffs) (Scenario 2) |
115 |
59 |
174 |
|
Trade growth explained by lower transport costs (Scenario 3) |
9 |
19 |
28 |
|
Trade growth explained by nontariff barrier cuts (Scenario 5) |
84 |
132 |
216 |
|
Trade with world estimates (extrapolated from above) | |||
|
Observed US merchandise trade in 1980 with 17 partners |
221 |
253 |
474 |
|
Observed US merchandise trade in 2004 with 17 partners |
818 |
1525 |
2343 |
|
Observed increase in trade from 1980 to 2004 in merchandise trade |
597 |
1272 |
1869 |
|
Trade growth explained by GDP growth and income elasticities of trade |
447 |
1152 |
1599 |
|
Trade growth explained by appreciation of US dollar and price elasticities of trade |
-64 |
88 |
24 |
|
Trade growth not explained by GDP growth or exchange rate change |
215 |
32 |
246 |
|
Trade growth explained by traditional trade policy liberalization (i.e., tariffs) (Scenario 2) |
135 |
69 |
204 |
|
Trade growth explained by lower transport costs (Scenario 3) |
11 |
22 |
33 |
|
Trade growth explained by nontariff barrier cuts (Scenario 5) |
99 |
155 |
253 |
|
Memorandum (GDP growth rate, 1980 to 2004): |
Growth (percent) | ||
|
Weighted average (by 1990 GDP) of 18 country GDP growth |
312 | ||
|
World GDP growth |
253 | ||
|
Memorandum (income and price elasticities): |
Export |
Import | |
|
Price elasticities (Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga 2004) |
-1.17 |
-1.30 | |
|
Income elasticities (Hooper, Johnson, and Marquez 2000) |
0.80 |
1.80 | |
|
Memorandum (exchange rate change): |
Change in index value | ||
|
Real equilibrium exchange rate change, 1980-2004 |
10.88 | ||
Notes: Exchange rate effect is calculated by: [10.88∕86.88]*[relevant price elasticity]*[relevant one-way US 1992 trade]—{times -1 for imports}
Sources: Hummels (2007); TRAINS Database via WITS (2008); UN Comtrade Database via WITS (2008); WTO (2008); Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga (2004);
Hooper, Johnson, and Marquez (2000); IMF International Financial Statistics, November 2008; IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2008; authors'
calculations.
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