A multistate demographic model for firms in the province of Gelderland



Startup year;

Year of disappearance from the database;

Reason of disappearance from the database;

Number of employed (including parttime and agency staff);

Whether or not a firm is located in the Economic Main Structure (EMS) of the
province.

SBI’93 is the Dutch version of the 1993 European classification of economic activities.
The European classification is called “Nomenclature générale des Activités
économiques dans les Communautés Européennes (NACE)”. The first four digits of
SBI’93 correspond with the NACE. For national applications a fifth digit has been
added (CBS, 1993). For the current analysis establishments were grouped into 4 main
economic sectors. A list of the codes is given in the Appendix. Figure 1 shows the
development of the number of firms by sector in the period 1986-2002. In 1986 the
sector with the largest share of firms was the trade sector (33.7%). The share of firms
performing activities in this sector decreased to 28.4 percent in 2002. The share of firms
performing activities in the service sector grew from 27.7 to 39.4 percent, now being the
largest sector. The share of industrial firms grew slightly from 12.3 to 15.1 percent, and
the remaining firms had a share of 26.2 percent in 1986, declining to 17.2 percent in
2002.

Figure 1 Number of firms in Gelderland, by sector, 1986-2002

In the Dutch national spatial policy plans, improvement of the international competition
position plays a central role. Spatial investments will only take place where they
contribute most to economic development. The National Spatial Economic Main
Structure (EMS) determines where the state preferentially invests. The EMS refers to
urban areas, mainports and infrastructure. To this Main Structure belong the six national
urban systems: Randstad Holland, Brabantstad, Maastricht-Heerlen, Groningen-Assen,
Arnhem-Nijmegen and Twente. Further it includes the national mainports Schiphol and
the harbour of Rotterdam, a number of economic core-areas and greenports as can be
found around Aalsmeer and in the Westland (Dekker, 2004).

The EMS covers 32 percent of the total Dutch area, 72 percent of the population aged
15 to 65, and 77 percent of all jobs (Louter, 2002).



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