Om Økonomi, matematik og videnskabelighed - et bud på provokation



further ado he should be met by the questions: which one, how do you bring it
about, and what is its time conceptual foundation?
” Eller som Kaldor har sagt
det i sin klassiske artikel fra 1972: generelle ligevægtsmodeller bygger pa urea-
Iistiske antagelser. Den 0konomiske virkelighed er ikke kendetegnet ved hver-
ken simultanitet, perfekt konkurrence forhold, rationelle agenter eller homogene
goder.9 Og dog; alle 0konomiske teorier mangier i en vis udstrækning realisme.
Dette er simpelthen n0dvendigt for at sikre sig, at teorien er operationel. En sa-
dan forenkling bliver f0rst for alvor problematisk, hvis der indtræffer væsentli-
ge institutionelle og strukturelle ændringer i 0konomien. Er en sadan udvikling
sandsynlig, ma den 0konomiske teori være kontekstuel; jf. Davis (1989:436):
economic theory cannot be static when its object of investigation is fundamen-
tally historical
”. Og dette er netop, hvad G.E.-modeller ikke kan eller vil, hæv-
der Davis.10

Hidtil har fremstillingen omkring den megen anvendelse af formalisme i 0ko-
nomisk teori alene haft et skeptisk præg. Lad afslutningsvist dette afsnit papege
nogle af de potentielle fordele ved en fornuftig anvendelse af matematik. Forde-
lene af en relevant anvendelse af f)rmaliserede metoder inden for 0konomi er
flere. Dels kan denne approach give struktur og overblik. Man kan opstille mo-
deller, indsamle data og ved estimationer og simulationer fors0ge at finde ιn-
derst0ttelse for sine teoretiske udsagn, eventuelt s0ge disse falsificeret. Man kan
fremkomme med bud pa den fremtidige 0konomiske udvikling og dermed give
det politiske beslutningsapparat en bedre baggrund for at træffe 0konomisk po-
litiske beslutninger, ligesom maske ogsa den 0konomisk politiske debat bliver

9    Dette har klare negative konsekvenser for den 0konomiske videnskab, hævder Kaldor, hvorfor

”ligevægtsokonomi” ”has become a major obstacle to the development of economics as a sci-
ence
- meaning by the term science” a body of theorems based on assumptions that are em-
pirically
derived (from observations) and which embody hypotheses that are capable of veri-
fication both in regard to the assumptions and the predictions”, p. 1237. Noget af Kaldor kri-
tik mod G.E.-modeller blev dog efterf0lgende umiddelbart im0degâet af f.eks. Hahn (1973).

10 ”Axiomatic General Equilibrium Theory, however, embodies a theory of concept develop-
ment that is inescapably ahistorical. That the full elaboration of its key notions proceeds a pri-
ori through a conceptual analysis tied to formal demonstration of market-clearing and opti-
mality means that these notions cannot accommodate any development of the economic proc-
ess which fails to reflect these results. The Theory itself, that is, is a closed logical structure
out of time, which must accordingly be representationally inadequate .. .Axiomatic General
Equilibrium Theory is then . simply unrealistic”; Davis (1989:436-37).

13



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