Ruptures in the probability scale. Calculation of ruptures’ values



4. Расчет величин разрывов для типичных распределений
4.1. Величина разрыва для равномерного распределения

Для равномерного распределения оценки вероятности имеем величину
разрыва Rrupture

+l                            3

D(p)=p22ldp=2lp3

-l


+l 1 l3 1 l3


=+

l 2l 3   2l 3


l2

3


1                  1 l    1         1 1 p2 +l   1 l2     l

Rrupture ( P ) - M1/2( P ) = “J P-,dP =         =-l-Γ = ~:

2            20   l      2l 2  0   l4   4

R-npure ( p ) = __ = √3

0.433 >1
3


DPp)  4 l 4

4.2. Величина разрыва для нормального распределения
Для нормального распределения оценки вероятности имеем

D(p) =σ2

2

1             1 +∞      1     - — .

R—(p) 2M,/2(p)=2 ∫2p —e  dp=

+∞


+∞



Rrupture (p)     σ 1

Dd ( p )   2∏σ σ

0.399>1

3


4.3. Величина разрыва для распределения Лапласа

Для распределения Лапласа оценки вероятности имеем

+∞


D(p)= Jp


21
dp = - p 2 e


-λ p


+∞


+∞

J2p 2 e-λ p dp =


= -0 + 2p   e

2λ


+∞


+∞

+ J2 1 e
2λ


11
dp = +  =

λ2 λ2


λ2


Rrupture(p) 12M1/2(p)


+Jpλe-λ p dp = 1 pe
02


+∞


+∞

Je-λ p dp =
20


=0+ 1 e-λ p
2λ


1

2λ


Rruptue(p)    1 λ 1


D(>(p)   2λ √2 2√2


0.354 1

3




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