Regionale Wachstumseffekte der GRW-Förderung? Eine räumlich-ökonometrische Analyse auf Basis deutscher Arbeitsmarktregionen

Modell

V /
ML-SAR

VI /
ML-SEM

VII /
ML-SDM

VIII /
ML-SDEM

Arbeitsproduktivitat in 1994
(Ln (BIP(1994)∕EWT(1994)))

-0.024***
(0.006)

-0.024***
(0.006)

-0.028***
(0.006)

-0.029***
(0.006)

Beschaftigungswachstum (plus Abschrei-
bung u techn. Fortschritt

(Ln EWT)

-0.006***
(0.002)

-0.006***
(0.002)

-0.007***
(0.002)

-0.007***
(0.002)

Investitionsintensitat

(Ln S)____________________________________

0.006***
(0.001)

0.005***
(0.001)

0.005***
(0.001)

0.005***
(0.001)

% Anteil Verarbeitendes Gewerbe
(Ln IND)

0.004***
(0.001)

0.005***
(0.001)

0.007***
(0.001)

0.007***
(0.001)

Humankapital
(Ln HK)

0.012
(0.010)

0.015
(0.010)

0.029***
(0.011)

0.030***
(0.010)

FuE-Industrien
(Ln Tech)

0.004**
(0.001)

0.004***
(0.001)

0.002*
(0.001)

0.002*
(0.001)

Marktpotenzial
(Ln MPOT)

0.002*
(0.001)

0.002*
(0.001)

0.003***
(0.001)

0.003***
(0.001)

Bevolkerungsdichte
(Ln BVD)

-0.007

(0.005)

-0.006

(0.005)

-0.005

(0.005)

-0.005

(0.005)

Quadrierte Bevolkerungsdichte
(Ln BVD^2)

0.001
(0.001)

0.001
(0.001)

0.001
(0.001)

0.001
(0.001)

Forderdummy (D_GRW)

0.071***
(0.028)

0.081***
(0.028)

0.085***
(0.028)

0.081***
(0.028)

Ln Y(1994) x D_GRW

-0.019***
(0.0074)

-0.021***
(0.007)

-0.022***
(0.007)

-0.021***
(0.007)

W * D_GRW

-0.323**
(0.005)

-0.276***
(0.103)

W * (Ln Y(1994) x D_GRW)

0.085**
(0.040)

0.072**
(0.028)

W * Ln BVD

-0.020***
(0.005)

-0.022***
(0.004)

P

0.073
(0.098)

0.240

(0.461)

λ

0.561***
(0.164)

-0.634

(0.862)

Log Likelihood

863.55

866.32

873.88

874.06

Wald Test of ρ /λ = 0

χ²(i)=o.56
(0.45)

χ²(1)=11.69***
(0.00)

χ²(1)=0.27
(0.60)

χ²(1)=0.54
(0.46)

Moran’s I
(P-Value)

2.490***
(0.00)

6.452***
(0.00)

0.706
(0.24)

-0.147
(0.44)